Electoral Math

Michigan & Minnesota Primary

2012-01-29T13:05:00.001-05:00

A couple of polls were also released this week in states holding primaries in February. Epic-MRA and the Detroit Free Press released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 5 points in Michigan. The Michigan primary is set to be held on February 28th, but offers a pretty good look at where the state stands a month out.

In Minnesota, Public Policy Polling released a poll this week showing Newt Gingrich ahead by 18 points on Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney is currently being closely challenged by Rick Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 13%. Minnesota's primary is only 9 days away and yet, so far, this is the only poll that is not so old that it's rendered meaningless.

3 other states, Nevada, Maine (February 4th)and Colorado (February 7th) are all scheduled to hold primaries within the next 10 days and yet, there has been no statewide polling in any of these states recently. I would expect that once we get past Florida on Tuesday, a whole slew of new polls will begin coming out in the next few days.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-29T07:19:00.000-05:00

2 new updates as NBC News/Marist and Rasmussen release polls showing Mitt Romney ahead by 15 and 16 points respectively. It looks like the Florida Primary is becoming a runaway victory for the former Massachusetts Governor. In my projections, Mitt Romney now leads by more than 9 points, vs. 6 points just yesterday. I would not be surprised to see Mr. Romney win on Tuesday by a margin considerably larger than my projection based on the way polling has gone this week.

I'll keep looking for new data as it becomes available and may post again later today if there are any new polls released.

2 new polls were released overnight showing Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich by 8-11 points. It would appear the gap between the two continues to widen slightly, since no poll has shown Mitt Romney in the lead by double digits since before the South Carolina Primary last weekend. In my projection, Romney now has just shy of a 7.5% lead two days out from the primary. I'll keep looking for polls today, but I don't expect there will be many, if at all.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-28T14:32:00.000-05:00

A new Ipsos/Reuters poll shows Mitt Romney ahead 41-33 over Newt Gingrich. This is the 7th consecutive poll where Romney leads by at least 7 points. The overall projection is basically unchanged with Gov. Romney ahead of Speaker Gingrich by 6.34%, enough for me to call Florida leaning Romney as has been the trend for the last 2 days. There is only one poll currently used in my calculation by Public Policy Polling that has Newt Gingrich ahead. Even that poll does not fully count in my projection as the are a Democratic organization. I expect the rest of the weekend will be quiet from a polling perspective and a slew of polls coming out on Monday prior to Tuesday's primary.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-27T20:01:00.001-05:00

2 new polls today by Quinnipiac and the Voter Survey Service, both showing Mitt Romney ahead in Florida by 9 points. There are now 6 consecutive polls that show the former Massachusetts Governor ahead of Newt Gingrich by at least 7 points. That said, the previous Voter Survey Service poll showed Gov. Romney ahead by 26, albeit prior to the South Carolina Primary. The previous Quinnipiac poll taken earlier this week, had Gov. Romney ahead by only 2, 36-34. As a result of these new polls replacing their predecessors, Gov. Romney's lead shrinks slightly in my projection from 7 to 6 points. Clearly, Florida is leaning toward Gov. Romney at the moment. With only 4 days before the primary, it would appear we'll need another game changer for Speaker Gingrich to catch Mitt Romney.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-26T19:52:00.000-05:00

5 days until the Florida Primary and 3 new polls today. In each of these, Mitt Romney is shown ahead 7-8 points. A new Rasmussen poll had the former Massachusetts Governor ahead 39-31 over Newt Gingrich. Just 3 days ago Rasmussen showed Speaker Gingrich of Mitt Romnery 41-32, a 17-point change. Yet again, it appears the leader in the Republican race has changed substantially.

As a result of today's polls, Mitt Romney expands his lead from 2 to 7 points in my projection, enough for me to move it from barely to leaning Romney.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-25T20:05:00.001-05:00

5 new polls were released today. Of them, Gov. Romney had small leads in 4 of them and the other showed a tie between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. It appears based on today's polls that Speaker Gingrich may have peaked in this race and is starting to swing back in the former Massachusetts Governor's direction. That said, Romney's lead in my projection continues to slip, now with a lead of only 2.58%. In fact, excluding the Voter Survey Service poll which will age out on Friday, Newt Gingrich would be ahead by about 1%. On the opposite side, yesterday, excluding the polls that were released prior to the South Carolina Primary on Saturday, the former Speaker's lead was more than 3%, so yet again there appears to a shift in the break neck pace of the Republican Primary campaign.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-25T05:23:00.001-05:00

We Ask America released a new poll last night showing Mitt Romney ahead by 2 points over Newt Gingrich. This flies in the face of the previous 3 polls releasen in the last two days showing Speaker Gingrich ahead of Gov. Romney by 5 to 9 points. The Speaker closes the gap by about one more point to just under 9%. Keep in mind, without the polling prior to South Carolina (which is what my final projection will incluse on Tuesday) that Speaker Gingrich would be ahead by about 6 points in my projection right now. The coming week will let us now, but I fully expect based on the dynamic of the race right now, that tonight's poll might be an outlier.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-23T06:13:00.001-05:00

Insider Advantage, Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling released new polls today showing Newt Gingrich ahead by 5-9 points. It looks like there may be another dramatic turnaround coming like he had in South Carolina. Removing the polls taken last week would put Gingrich ahead by 8 in my projection. All of the polls that were completed prior to the South Carolina primary will age out of my final calculation. The seismic shift is on in Florida. Tonight's debate will be very important for both Romney and Gingrich. Mitt Romney has to stop the bleeding, and Newt Gingrich needs to not slip. It's like Mitt will be on the attack tonight and the debate could get ugly early.

Florida Republican Primary

2012-01-22T08:58:00.001-05:00

As of this morning, Mitt Romney holds a 22 point lead on Newt Gingrich. Since all of these polls were taken prior to last night's South Carolina primary result and prior to the late surge that Gingrich had in South Carolina. I would expect in the next couple of days there's going to be a slew of new polling to sort out where we are entering the Florida campaign.

South Carolina Republican Primary

2012-01-21T18:26:00.004-05:00

Projection:

Newt Gingrich: 37.80%
Mitt Romney: 31.37%
Ron Paul: 15.43%
Rick Santorum: 14.40%

7:00pm: The polls are closed and Newt Gingrich is declared the winner. If they were able to call the election immediately, the margin of victory must have been very large. Likely more than 10. There were a couple of polls this morning that showed Gingrich ahead by 14. It's possible that the spread was even wider than that. We'll see as the returns come in.

8:00 am 1/22/12:

The results are in and Newt Gingrich wins South Carolina. While the totals are not final, here's how the results look so far:

Newt Gingrich: 243,153 40%
Mitt Romney: 167,279 28%
Rick Santorum: 102,055 17%
Ron Paul: 77,993 13%

Overall, I had a pretty good night. All projections were within about 3%. With the way the polls fluctuated so much in the last 72 hours, it is not a surprise that the projections wer slightly off. I'm a little disappointed that I incorrectly had the order of finish for Santorum and Paul, but the race for third in the polling was relatively close throughout with Santorum picking up a little momentum in the last couple of days.

From here, we're off to Florida. I'll have a post later today that describes where the race is right now, but that is hardly where it will be a week from now after last night's result.

2012

2012-01-21T15:13:00.002-05:00

Welcome back to Electoral Math. It's been a long 3+ years since I last posted here, but with the Republican primary season heating up, I thought it might be a good time to get started. It's a little too early to begin full projections for a whole host of reasons, first the challenger is yet to be determined and there aren't enough state-by-state polls for the likely nominees to project all states. That said, I'd like to take a look back to 2008.

Overall, my projection from 2008 held up very well. I picked all but one state correctly (Indiana) and I missed the 2nd district of Nebraska. Honestly, no one was projecting Nebraska to split its electoral votes, so there was no polling to support the question.

What I was most impressed with however was my popular vote projection. Using only state polls, I was able to project the gap between Pres. Obama and Sen. McCain within 0.02% the overall popular vote (7.28% projected vs. 7.26% actual). I slightly underestimated votes for other candidates, but none of the third party candidates played an important role in the election.

To see my 2008 projections, click the 2008 link on the right side of this page.

Thoughts so far in 2012:

Today is the Republican primary in South Carolina. Newt Gingrich in the last few days has been able to overtake Mitt Romney, who held a lead as large as 20 points in one poll only 5 days ago. Polls released this morning show Gingrich ahead by as much 13, a stunning turnaround.

There are 4 candidates left in the race with Mitt Romney in the lead followed by Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. My inclination based on the tone of the race right now is that if either Santorum or Gingrich leave the race, it will likely be very good for the remaining candidate of the two. Romney hasn't been able to captivate the conservative base of the party and Paul, while doing considerably this time around, his libertarian views aren't likely to pick up most of those votes. If Gingrich wins tonight, which it appears he's going to do, it looks to me like the Republican nomination could be unsettled for quite a while. That said, if both Gingrich and Santorum are able to stay in the race through Super Tuesday, I would expect that it will be very good news for Romney. Otherwise, I think the survivor of Gingrich & Santorum has a legitimate shot at becoming the nominee.

Electoral Math - Final

2008-11-04T06:44:00.034-05:00

11/4: A couple polls have been added since my post last night, but there are no changes in the final map other than a few votes getting added to Sen. McCain's total.

All states have been updated with all polls through yesterday. Please use the links on the left side of the page to look at any state data. States where the election is expected to close (within 10%) have comments in the posts. Any polls released today will be ignored.

The first poll closing times occur at 7 PM Eastern Time tonight and include some of the most contested states: Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Pay attention to Indiana, Georgia and Virginia in this group.

Georgia and Virginia are similar in that both states are separated by about 5 points although for opposite candidates. The thing to look for is which of those 2 states get called first. If Virginia gets called earlier than Georgia (particularly if its called within the first hour or so), it could mean that polling has underestimated the under 30 vote and the African-American vote. If this is the case it will be a nationwide trend.

The opposite is also true in Georgia. If Georgia gets called relatively quickly it could mean that there is a "Bradley Effect" in play or that younger voters are not turning out or that the 72 hour Republican GOTV program has worked.

The other state to look at is Indiana. Indiana is one of only 3 states that are within 2 points in my projections. If Indiana gets called relatively early it will be good for the winning side.

7:30 am: I've been curious all summer if my vote count projection would hold up. I've got it at just shy of 138 million. If there's any math wonks out there take a look at the Methodology page I wrote in June describing how my projections were arrived at.

7:20 pm: No surprises as Kentucky is called for Sen. McCain and Vermont is called for Sen. Obama.

7:45 pm: NBC calls South Carolina for Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain now leads 16-3. So far I'm 3 for 3, but none of those are at all a surprise.

8:00 pm: OK & TN are called for Sen. McCain, ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, NJ, PA & MD are called for Sen. Obama. Obama now leads 103-34. Pennsylvania is the most important of these states for Sen. McCain and is a devastating blow to his campaign. There is not many scenarios where Sen. McCain can still will win.

8:32 pm: Alabama and its 9 electoral votes are called for Sen. McCain. Sen. Obama still leads 103-43.

8:35 pm: Sen. McCain wins Georgia. This is one of the states I mentioned this morning. Because Georgia went for McCain before Virginia for Obama, it is generally good news for Sen. McCain. 103-58 Obama.

9:00 pm: KS, ND and WY for McCain. NY, MI, MN, WI and RI for Obama. Sen. Obama's lead is now 175-70.

9:06 pm: Arkansas is called for Sen. McCain. Sen. Obama now leads 175-76.

9:22 pm: Ohio is called for Sen. Obama. Sen. Obama leads by 195-76. This means he needs only the west coast Washington, Oregon and California to get to 268, any other state will win him the election. It's just about over.

9:26 pm: Louisiana goes to McCain. Obama 195-85.

9:30 pm: New Mexico goes to Obama. He now leads 200-85.

9:38 pm: West Virginia goes to McCain. Obama is ahead 200-90.

9:54 pm: Texas is called for Sen. McCain. Obama's lead is cut to 200-124.

10:00 pm: McCain wins Utah, Obama wins Iowa. Obama now ahead 207-129.

10:08 pm: Mississippi is called for Sen. McCain. Electoral count now 207-135.

10:33 pm: The election is likely to be called at 11:00 when polls in California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii close. Wins in these states for Sen. Obama will make his electoral vote total 284.

10:36 pm: South Dakota is called for Sen. McCain. Sen. Obama now leads 207-138. So far, I'm 35 for 35, although admittedly most of these were not expected to be close.

10:40 pm: 4 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes are called for Sen. McCain. The Omaha district is still in play. For those of you that are not aware how Nebrasks distributes its electoral votes, I'll explain. The winner of the state is given 2 electoral votes (for the Senate seats). Each congressional district is given its own electoral and is given to the winner of that district. Right now, the district direcctly surrounding Omaha is considered too close to call, although the state and the other 2 congressional districts have both been called for Sen. McCain. New total? Obama 207-142.

11:00 pm: NBC News declares Sen. Obama the next president of the United States.

11:03 pm: As a matter of housekeeping, Sen. McCain wins Idaho and Sen. Obama wins California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. Sen. Obama now leads 284-146.

11:07 pm: Virginia is moved into Sen. Obama's column. He now leads 297-146.

11:13 pm: Colorado is called for Sen. Obama. 306-146.

11:15 pm: Florida is called for Sen. Obama. 333-146.

11:22 pm: Arizona goes to Sen. McCain. 333-156.

11:36 pm: Nevada goes to Sen. Obama. 338-156.

12:40 am: No changes in the last hour. I'm signing off for the night. For those of you keeping score (and I trust that's likely only me), there have been 45 states called so far (plus Washington D.C.) and so far, I have not missed a state. It is possible at this point the I could get Indiana (which I had for McCain) and North Carolina (which I had for Obama) wrong on my final map. We'll see in the morning.

1:40 am: 40 minutes after the polls close in Alaska, Sen. McCain is called the winner. Obama leads 338-159. So far, with 4 states left in play, I have not yet missed. By and large, this is the case with several projection sites.

5:45 am: This morning I wake to find Montana for Sen. McCain and Indiana for Sen. Obama. My first miss. Missouri and North Carolina and the 2nd district of Nebraska are still undecided. 349-162.

11/5 (9:00 pm): Missouri and North Carolina are still toss-ups, however, Sen. McCain holds a small lead in Missouri and Sen. Obama holds a small lead in North Carolina. If they hold, I will have correctly picked 49 out of 50 states. I was 49 out of 50 in 2004 as well. I'll take it. One of these years I'll get it right.

Electoral Math

2008-11-04T06:40:00.000-05:00

11/4: Only 1 change on the map in West Virginia as it is moved from leaning back to safely McCain. His lead appears to be around 11 points there.

Electoral Vote Trend

2008-11-04T06:37:00.000-05:00

11/4: Sen. Obama's electoral led has held over the last several weeks, even as polls in most battleground states have gotten closer.

Popular Vote Trend

2008-11-04T06:32:00.000-05:00

11/4: State polls have tightened for the last week or so overall, but Sen. Obama still maintains a lead of over 10 million votes (7.28%) in my projection.

Alabama

2008-11-04T06:21:00.000-05:00

Alaska

2008-11-04T06:19:00.000-05:00

Arizona

2008-11-04T06:18:00.002-05:00

11/4: Since the Arizona St. poll came out here last week showing Sen. McCain ahead here by only 2. There has been a lot of polling and a lot of speculation that Sen. Obama could pick off his opponent's home state. I think he falls just short. McCain +5.

Arkansas

2008-11-04T05:42:00.003-05:00

California

2008-11-04T05:42:00.001-05:00

Colorado

2008-11-04T05:39:00.002-05:00

11/4: Colorado was a toss-up for a short time after Gov. Palin's nomination, but for the last 6 weeks or so, Sen. Obama has had a steady lead. Obama +8.

Connecticut

2008-11-04T05:38:00.000-05:00

Delaware

2008-11-04T05:37:00.002-05:00

District of Columbia

2008-11-04T05:35:00.002-05:00

Florida

2008-11-04T05:32:00.003-05:00

11/4: Florida has been very close throughout the campaign. The Sunshine State appears to be leaning toward Sen. Obama, however, as only Rasmussen has Sen. McCain ahead in its final poll of the season. No recount necessary. Obama +3.

Georgia

2008-11-04T05:29:00.003-05:00

11/4: Georgia has been creeping closer and closerover the last several weeks, but Sen. McCain holds a large enough lead to keep Georgia in the Repblican column. McCain +4.

Hawaii

2008-11-04T05:29:00.001-05:00

Idaho

2008-11-04T05:28:00.002-05:00

Illinois

2008-11-04T05:27:00.002-05:00

Indiana

2008-11-04T05:23:00.002-05:00

11/4: Polls in Indiana have been close ad noisy in recent weeks. The range of polls just in the last 2 weeks is everywhere from McCain +6 to Obama +9. Obviously, the race is somewhere in between, but I think if only for the history of presidential elections here it will remain red. McCain +1.

Iowa

2008-11-04T05:22:00.002-05:00

Kansas

2008-11-04T05:20:00.004-05:00

Kentucky

2008-11-04T05:19:00.002-05:00

Louisiana

2008-11-04T05:17:00.000-05:00

Maine

2008-11-04T05:16:00.002-05:00

Maryland

2008-11-04T05:15:00.002-05:00

Massachusetts

2008-11-04T05:14:00.001-05:00

Michigan

2008-11-04T05:12:00.000-05:00

Minnesota

2008-11-04T05:11:00.000-05:00

Mississippi

2008-11-04T05:10:00.001-05:00

Missouri

2008-11-04T05:07:00.003-05:00

11/4: Like North Carolina and Indiana, Missouri is truly too close to call. The last 4 polls here have been a tie. I think we are likely to see Missouri too close too call for quite some time. McCain by less than 0.5%

Montana

2008-11-04T05:04:00.002-05:00

Sen. Obama has closed a significant gap here in the last 6 weeks, but I think he falls just short. McCain +3.

Nebraska

2008-11-04T05:03:00.002-05:00

Nevada

2008-11-04T05:01:00.003-05:00

11/4: Nevada appears to be closer than some other states, but the reality is Sen. McCain has not led in a single poll here in October. Obama +7.

New Hampshire

2008-11-04T04:58:00.003-05:00

11/4: Sen. McCain spent some time in New Hampshire this past weekend to try to shore up support as an insurance policy in case he loses Nevada. I don't see anything that would make me think he's moved the needle here. Obama +11.

New Jersey

2008-11-04T04:56:00.000-05:00

New Mexico

2008-11-04T04:54:00.003-05:00

11/4: Obama has pulled away in New Mexico in recent polling. Obama +10.

New York

2008-11-04T04:53:00.001-05:00

North Carolina

2008-11-04T04:48:00.002-05:00

11/4: Take your pick here. North Carolina is a close a state as you'll find in this election. Like in many other battleground states in this cycle, polls have tightened here. Over the last week polls have been mixed. Based on early voting, it appears that Sen. Obama may have a slight advantage. Obama +1 (possibly less).

North Dakota

2008-11-04T04:46:00.003-05:00

11/4: North Dakota is a state that Sen. Obama has long thought he might be able to steal. I still think he could, but I find it a little tough to believe. There hasn't been much campaigning here despite the closeness of the race. McCain +2.

Ohio

2008-11-04T04:41:00.002-05:00

11/4: While a late fury of polls show a toss-up in Ohio, I'm inclined to think that Ohio will turn blue this year. Along with a handful of other states, Sen. McCain has been trying to take back Ohio over the last several weeks with a considerbale amount of success. Polls from 2 weeks ago look clearly different from what they look like today. That said, I don't think he's wuite made it all the way back. Obama +4.

Oklahoma

2008-11-04T04:40:00.001-05:00

Oregon

2008-11-04T04:39:00.003-05:00

Pennsylvania

2008-11-04T04:34:00.002-05:00

11/4: Pennsylvania has been ground zero for the McCain campaign for the last several weeks. It is a state he simply must win if he's going to have any chance at winning the election. While he had been able to cut the gap here over the last couple of weeks from about 13 down to about 6 (in fact a couple of polls only had him down by 4), it appears that in the last couple of days of polling, Sen. Obama was able to reestablish xome of his lead. Obama +10.

Rhode Island

2008-11-04T04:32:00.000-05:00

South Carolina

2008-11-04T04:30:00.003-05:00

South Dakota

2008-11-04T04:30:00.001-05:00

Tennessee

2008-11-04T04:28:00.001-05:00

Texas

2008-11-04T04:27:00.001-05:00

Utah

2008-11-04T04:25:00.001-05:00

Vermont

2008-11-04T04:22:00.001-05:00

Virginia

2008-11-04T04:19:00.003-05:00

11/4: There has been some tightening in the polls here in the last week or so, but not once has Sen. McCain had a lead in a poll here since the beginning of October. Obama by 6.

Washington

2008-11-04T04:16:00.002-05:00

West Virginia

2008-11-04T04:15:00.000-05:00

Wisconsin

2008-11-04T04:14:00.002-05:00

Wyoming

2008-11-04T04:13:00.002-05:00

Electoral Math - Final

2008-11-03T20:36:00.002-05:00

11/3: In what seemed like a never-ending stream of polls, there are no changes today on the map. The 3 current toss-up states were given to the leader. In Indiana, Sen. McCain is ahead by 1.2%; in Missouri, McCain by 0.34% and in North Carolina, Sen. Obama is ahead by 0.94%. I feel very comfortable calling Indiana for McCain but I have reservations about both Missouri and North Carolina. In Missouri, the last 4 polls before the election have shown a tie, but because 3 of the previous 4 showed Sen. McCain in the lead I've given him the nod. In North Carolina, Sen. McCain was ahead in 3 of the 4 polls released today, but in the days leading up to the election Sen. Obama was clearly ahead. I'm thinking that early voting may swing the state.

There you have it. I'll be making updates tonight and all day tomorrow, getting the state posts caught up can be a daunting task. I'll also blog about the election itself throughout the day tomorrow.

For those of you who have been faithful followers of electoral math, I want to thank you all. I have enjoyed putting forth my insight throughout this election season. See you all tomorrow.

Final Projection

2008-11-03T19:21:00.001-05:00

Obama 353
McCain 185

The map & all state data will be uploaded later this evening.

Electoral Math

2008-11-02T18:32:00.002-05:00

11/2: North Carolina is moved back to a toss-up today after a new Mason-Dixon poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. There have been 31 polls in North Carolina in October and November and only 5 have actually shown Sen. McCain ahead. 5 others have been ties. There has been tightening in almost all the swing states in the last week and with only today left to poll, (and tomorrow to release that poll) it's time to start making decisions. I have a projection that I'm comfortable with that I'll release tomorrow along with all the things to look for.

Electoral Math

2008-11-01T21:19:00.003-04:00

11/1: 2 chanes on the map today, although none in the electoral count. Arkansa is moved from safe to leaning McCain as his lead is cut to 9 points. There is little chance that Sen. Obama can win this state, although polls in the last 10 days have shown a shrinking gap. In Pennsylvania, the last 6 polls have all shown Sen. Obama's lead cut to under 8 points and average less than 6. As a result, Pennsylvania is moved from safe to leaning Obama and may move again before
long. Sen. McCain has been spending a tremendous amount of time here, as he sees Pennsylvania as his only real chance to pick off a state that could get him to 270 electoral votes.

Electoral Math

2008-11-01T02:40:00.003-04:00

10/31: 2 changes on the map today in North Carolina & North Dakota. In North Carolina, Sen. Obama takes just a large enough to move the sate barely back into his column. The opposite is true in North Dakota. Sen. McCain has taken a 2 point lead there in my projections. Either way, little is changed in the electoral math as Sen. Obama needs to carry either Ohio or Virginia to win the election of the states that are likely to be close.

Electoral Math

2008-10-31T04:52:00.004-04:00

10/29: Only 1 change in the electoral map today as Indiana moves from barely Obama to toss-up after a 2nd consecutive poll shows Sen. McCain back in the lead here. There is evidence mounting that Sen. Obama mayhave peaked about 10 days too early, as polling has begun to shift in Sen. McCain's general direction (although still clearly behind).

Electoral Math

2008-10-29T05:51:00.002-04:00

10/28: No changes on the map today, for the first time in what seems like weeks. Sen. Obama remains ahead by about 7.6% in my projection today (which is close to both the Real Clear Politics and the Pollster.com average at 6.7%). The RCP and Pollster averages change more quickly as national polls are released more frequently than state polls.

What to watch for on election night? Indiana has one of the early poll closing times (7PM eastern). Because the race is close there, the earlier the state is called, the better it is for the winning side. If Sen. McCain wins Indiana by 4 or 5 points, it is possible that the map will differ significantly from what is expected. At the same time, if Sen. Obama wins by 4 or 5 it could mean a national landslide.

Electoral Math

2008-10-27T21:57:00.003-04:00

10/27: Sen. Obama regains Florida today after 3 new polls there show him ahead by 4, 5 and a tie. His lead expands to just over 2 points. It has been right around there for the last couple of weeks as Florida has bounced between toss-up to barely Obama several times. The most significant poll however, might have been in California, where a new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 27. This is significant in that it's a state liokely to have between 13 and 14 million votes cast, and a swing of just 1 point changes my popular vote projection by about 135,000 votes. Based on what I see now in state polling, Sen. Obama's poopular vote lead has actually moved above the numbers being publishe din national polls to 7.61% (10.5 million votes). Even with all that said, I am still not confident that what the polls are showing are what's going to happen 8 days from now. Call it the Bradley effect, or whatever you like, I'm still not sold on an electoral landslide.

Electoral Math

2008-10-26T19:31:00.003-04:00

10/26: 3 changes on the electoral map in the last 2 days. All 3 are states that had been in the barely Obama and have moved to toss-up. First, in Florida, 3 out of the last 7 polls this week have shown Sen. McCain ahead. As a result, Florida's 27 electoral votes are moved back into the toss-up column. A similar scenario is shaping up in Missouri, as 3 out of the last 6 polls there show Sen. McCain ahead. Finally, in North Carolina, the latest Rasmussen poll has Sen. McCain ahead by 2. This is the first poll in the last couple of weeks that shows him ahead, but it's just enough to kick his deficit under 2 points. As a result, Sen. Obama loses 53 electoral votes (although he remains slightly ahead in all 3 states).

Electoral Vote Trend

2008-10-26T19:28:00.003-04:00

10/26: ...in the last 2 days, Sen. Obama has had three states move from his barely column, back to toss-up. There is evidence in these swing states that they may be beginning to turn the other way, despite the large leads in national polls which are running somewhere around 7 points...

Popular Vote Trend

2008-10-26T19:25:00.004-04:00

10/26: Sen. Obama has continued to make large gains in the popular vote, mostly through swings in polls in his favor in large states like New York and California. As I've mention in my last few posts, I think he is reaching a peak and may begin to start swinging back in the last weeks of the campaign, because...

Electoral Math

2008-10-25T07:01:00.003-04:00

10/23: 2 changes on the map today. Florida is moved back from toss-up to barely Obama after 2 new polls show Sen. Obama ahead by between 5 and 7 points. The other big change comes Indiana. 2 new polls were released in Indiana today sowing Sen. Obama ahead by 4 & 9. There have now been 3 consecutive polls showing Sen. Obama in the lead here. As a result, Indiana is moved from barely McCain to barely Obama. There were also a couple of color changes today. First, Georgia is moved from leaning to barely McCain after a Rasmussen polls has him up by only 5. This compares to a 9 point lead in their poll 2 weeks ago. Finally, Minnesota is moved from leaning to safely Obama. 3 new polls were released there today showing leads between 10 & 19 points. Sen. Obama now has leads of 10 points or more in states worth 255 electoral votes and 306 in states where he holds leads of more than 6. Even if Sen. McCain wins all the states that are currently barely Obama (which I think is possible), he would only have 232. After that he would need to win Ohio and Virginia and Colorado (all of which Sen. Obama leads by about 6) to get to 274.

Electoral Math

2008-10-24T04:34:00.004-04:00

10/22: Only one change on the map today in Florida as the Sunshine State is moved back into the toss-up column. 3 of the last 5 polls here have sown Sen. McCain with a 1 or 2 point lead. Overall, Sen. Obama is still ahead here, but his lead is looking more tenuous. Despite this, Sen. Obama's popular vote lead has now expanded to over 7.6 million votes (5.52%). I keep waiting for something to happen that changes the trend that has occurred over the last month, but every time I think there's been a game-changer in the election, it turns out to not be reflected in polling data.

Electoral Math

2008-10-22T02:57:00.003-04:00

10/21: A host of new polls but only one change on the map today. West Virginia is moved from toss-up to leaning McCain after a new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. McCain leading there by 9. There had been an outlying poll that had Sen. Obama ahead by 8 that was released a couple of weeks ago that was holding the state back, but now that the poll has been aged out, it's back where it belongs. As it stands now, there is only 1 state left on the map within 2 points. I think there is some play in the barely states with 2 weeks left, it would take a game-changer at this point to move the leaning states in one direction or another.

From here on out, every poll that is released will be used in my final calculation.

Electoral Math

2008-10-20T20:35:00.003-04:00

10/20: 2 changes on the map today. First in New Hampshire, a new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 7. This is the 3rd straight poll showing leads of between 7 & 9 points and New Hampshire is moved from safely to leaning Obama. The other big news of the day is in North Carolina. 7 of the last 8 polls show Sen. Obama ahead and as a result, North Carolina is moved from toss-up to barely Obama. At 364, Sen. Obama has the most electoral votes in my projection so far.

Vlog 10/19

2008-10-19T19:57:00.003-04:00

Electoral Math

2008-10-19T18:56:00.002-04:00

10/19: No changes on the map again today after several polls in swing states have begun to show that Sen. Obama may have peaked. That doesn't necessarily mean the race is moving back toward McCain just yet, but it appears he may have reached his peak in my projection. New Mason-Dixon polls in Ohio and West Virginia both show Sen. McCain ahead (8 points in WV). While this is only 1 standard deviation from the recent mean in both states, and Mason-Dixon tends to lean more Republican than some other pollsters, I think there is a growing trend that Sen. McCain has stopped the bleeding. It is likely that a ew polling in West Virginia will move the state back to barely on his side, putting him at 171 electoral votes.

Electoral Movie

2008-10-18T08:49:00.005-04:00

10/19: I've encapsulated the last 5 weeks of electoral maps into a short 2 minute video. For those of you who have been loyal followers here, you may get something out of watch the map slowly turn. For those of you who are new, it might be worth your while to see where we've been. Enjoy!

Electoral Math

2008-10-18T06:52:00.002-04:00

10/17: 2 days after Missouri is taken away from Sen. Obama it is given back after a new Rasmussen poll there shows him ahead by 6. In North Dakota, 2 new polls over the last 3 days and 3 in the last week have all shown Sen. Obama from a tie to a 3 point lead. As a result, North Dakota is moved into the toss-up column. Today's map represents Sen. Obama's largest electoral lead at 349-166.

Electoral Math

2008-10-17T05:19:00.004-04:00

10/15: Only one change in the last couple of days as Missouri is moved from barely Obama to toss-up after a new CNN/Time poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 1. Sen. Obama has also taken the largest popular vote lead I have projected so far at 6.84 million votes (4.96%). Over the last 25 days, Sen. Obama has gainedin my popular vote projection in 23 of them and gained 6.25 million votes during that span.

Electoral Math

2008-10-14T05:48:00.003-04:00

10/13: Two note worthy changes today. First, 2 new polls were released in Missouri today showing Sen. Obama ahead. 4 of the last 5 polls there have now shown him in the lead. Today's Survey USA poll may be an outlier (Obama +8), but for now Missouri moves barely on Obama's side, putting his electoral total at 349. The second change (and potentially more noteworthy) is in Virginia, where Sen. Obama's lead moves to about 6.6%. As a result, Virginia moves from barely to leaning Obama and he now has 277 electoral votes in states where he leads by 6 points or more. The map looks very favorable to Sen. Obama.

Electoral Math

2008-10-12T07:46:00.002-04:00

10/11: Little is changed today after polls in 6 states confirm earlier findings. Only 3 and 1/2 weeks away from the election and Sen. McCain finds himself in a lot of trouble. His campaign still can't seem t find a clear message and the tone is getting nastier (despite his efforts to stop it). He needs to have about a 5 point seing in the national polls to have a chance. In order to win the election, he needs to win the 3 toss-up states(North Carolina, Indiana and West Virginia). He is currently ahead by the smallest of margins in all 3 of these states. He also needs to win all the barely Obama states. Ohio (Obama+3.51%), Florida (Obama+3.55%) , Colorado (Obama+4.24%), Nevada (Obama+4.37%) and Virginia (Obama+5.14%). The math for Sen. McCain is looking very bleak.

Shout Out

2008-10-10T18:46:00.002-04:00

My thanks to 3bluedudes.com. They have generated over 3,000 hits to my blog from their site. Thanks for all the traffic. I appreciate it very much.

Electoral Math

2008-10-10T08:49:00.002-04:00

10/9: Only one change today as West Virginia surprisingly moves into the toss-up column after a new ARG poll there puts Sen. Obama ahead by 8. Sen. McCain had been leading by 4-8 points in other recent polls and ARG's may be an outlier. More polling will be needed to confirm. Sen. Obama's lead has also now moved to over 5.4 million votes in my projection and is the biggest lead he has held since late July.

Electoral Math

2008-10-09T02:17:00.004-04:00

10/6: Florida, Florida, Florida. A new Fox News/Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 7 and moves Florida from toss-up to barely Obama. This is the first time that the sunshine state has been held by the Illinois Senator in my projection. Right now, he has 254 electoral votes in states where he leads by 6 or more and would only need to carry Ohio, Florida or any combination of two of the smaller states (Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia) to win the election. The map is looking very bleak for Sen. McCain right now.

Electoral Math

2008-10-07T06:42:00.003-04:00

10/3: Sen. Obama picks up Nevada and New Hampshire in my projection after new polls in both states show his lead expanding. He now has 311 electoral votes in my projection, but more importantly, he has 245 electoral votes in states where he is ahead by 6 points or more.

Electoral Math

2008-10-02T22:08:00.003-04:00

10/1: 19 new polls were released in 13 states today, resulting in 4 changes on the map and 2 in the electoral count, all of them in favor of Sen. Obama. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are moved from barely to leaning Obama new polls show his lead expanding in both states. Missouri is moved to a toss-up after a new CNN/Time puts Sen. Obama ahead by 1. Ohio is moved from a toss-up to barely Obama after a new Quinnipiac poll puts Sen. Obama ahead by 8. While this may be an outlier, there is evidence that Ohio may be beginning to turn.

The math; since I began my projection in June no one has held as wide a lead as Sen. Obama has today in the electoral college. As it stands now, Sen. Obama holds 218 electoral votes in states where he holds leads of 6 points or more. Sen. McCain has an uphill fight from here, less than 5 weeks from the election.

Electoral Math

2008-09-30T22:32:00.002-04:00

9/30: 9 new polls in 7 states result in 3 changes on the map and 2 in the electoral count. First, in New Jersey, 2 new polls in New Jersey show Sen. Obama ahead by 9 & 10, respectively. In addition, some older polls that showed the race considerably closer wer eremoved from my projeciton and as a result, new Jersey is moved from leaning to safely Obama. In Indiana, a new Survey USA poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. A similar situation occurred here, where a potential outlier was removed from the projection and as a result, Sen. McCain regains Indiana's 11 electoral votes. Finally, in Virginia, a new Insider Advantage poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 6. This is now the 5th poll out of the last 6 where he has held a lead in te last 10 days. As a result, Virginia is moved barely to Obama's side.

The new math:

Sen. McCain finds himself in a bit of trouble here. With only 5 weeks left before election day, Sen. Obama has leads of more than 2 points in states 282 electoral votes. Sen. McCain may be tempted to try to win a single state that could swing the election in his favor. The likely candidate of the light blue states? Clearly, Michigan and Pennsylvania fit the bill. It will likely depend on where the economy stands in the next couple of weeks. If no bailout plan is passed, and the economy survives, he may try to use that to his advantage in Michigan. If Congress does pass a bill he will likely move on to Pennsylvania. I would not be surprised t find out in the next couple of weeks that Sen. McCain slows down his campaign in Virginia if poll numbers do not get better. Today's poll shows him down by 6. That's fine for today, but 3 weeks from now it is devastating.

The upside for Sen. McCain is that for now he leads in all te toss-up states except New Hampshire. Taking out toss-ups, the electoral count today would be 286-252. That means that he only needs to flip Pennsylvania to win the election outright and would need only Michigan to send the election to the floor of the House.

Popular Vote Trend

2008-09-30T22:29:00.003-04:00

9/30: 9 new polls today in 7 states result in sizeable gains for Sen. Obama in Georgia, New Jersey, and Virginia. As a result, Sen. Obama picks up about 273,000 (0.19%) net votes in my projection today and pushes his overall lead to over 2.6 million (1.90%).

Electoral Vote Trend

2008-09-30T22:23:00.003-04:00

9/30: 2 states are moved out of toss-up status today, one each for Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama. First in Indiana, Sen. McCain gains 11 electoral votes as his lead has expanded there to about 3 in my projection. In Virginia, there is a 3 point lead for Sen. Obama and its 13 electoral votes are moved to Sen. Obama. As a result, for the first time in nearly 2 months, Sen. Obama moves over 270 electoral votes for the first time and has almost reached his peak total from July (293).

Electoral Math

2008-09-29T20:41:00.002-04:00

9/29: 9 polls in 7 states provide 6 gains for Sen. Obama today. Only one change on the map, but it's an imporant one. Ohio is moved from barely McCain to toss-up after a new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by only one. In addition, several older polls with wider margins were aged out oy my formula and as a result, Sen. McCain's lead was cut from 2.02% to 0.18%. Leadsfor Sen. Obama expanded today in Pennsylvania (Obama +5.24%) and Virginia (Obama +1.66%). Additionally, he cut his deficits in North Carolina (McCain +0.18%) and Florida (McCain +0.60%).

Popular Vote Trend

2008-09-29T20:37:00.003-04:00

9/29: Sen. Obama gains nearly 300,000 net votes today after 9 polls in 7 states show him gaining ground in most battleground states. In addition, he makes up most of the 400,000 votes he lost yesterday.

Electoral Vote Trend

2008-09-29T20:24:00.004-04:00

9/29: Sen. McCain loses 20 more electoral votes today as Ohio is moved into the toss-up category again. It is likely to remain there for a considerable amount of time. There has now been a shift of 94 electoral votes in the last 11 days.

Electoral Math

2008-09-28T18:14:00.003-04:00

9/28: 6 polls in 5 states today result in no changes on the map. That said, there was a new poll in California that showed the lead for Sen. Obama down to 10. This cut his lead in my projection from 17 to 14 points and resulted in a popular vote shift of nearly 400,000 votes toward Sen. McCain today. This is the first substantial gain he's had in about 10 days. All polls that were released today were based on surveys taken before the debate on Friday night so no conclusions can be drawn about the debate just yet. That time will come soon enough.