Thursday, June 26, 2008

Electoral Math


There are 4 changes to the electoral map today in Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Only Michigan actually adds to the projected total as Obama moves that state from a toss-up to barely in his column. Deeper blues were placed in Minnesota and Wisconsin and while still leaning toward McCain, Kansas moves one shade lighter. It was a rough day for McCain all around as the media has been playing up the latest national poll data showing Obama ahead by a range of 12 to 15 points, while mostly ignoring the Gallup tracking poll which shows the race even. Quinnipiac College ran large sample (over 1300 respondents each) polls in four key battleground states in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. All showed a sginificant widening in Obama's leads. I suspect that as a result there will be an influx of republican leaning polls released in the next several days. For now, Obama leads by nearly 5,000,000 votes in my latest projection. Tomorrow along with the new polling data, I will release the individual states from today polls.

1 comment:

sonsart2 said...

Thank you. I appreciate that.