Electoral Math

7/21: 6 polls were released today in Georgia, Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan and new Hampshire. Only one change on the map as New Hampshire moves from a toss-up to leaning Obama. An interesting bit of math developing. Currently, Sen. Obama leads by at least 6 points in states worth 264 electoral votes. As it stands right now, John McCain would have to win all of the current toss-up states, Florida, Nevada, North Dakota and Virginia. In addition, he would need to win both states that are currently Barely Obama. In Ohio, Obama currently has only a 2.94% lead according to my projections, but in Colorado, the lead is 5.4%. That's a fairly dramatic swing, even this early in the race in order to carry the election. Presuming that all states would swing that way (that big a swing in a single state usually represents a significant shift in momentum), Sen. McCain would win the popular vote by about 1%. This appears to be a tall task for John McCain at this point.