Saturday, July 26, 2008

Electoral Math


7/26: 3 new polls today in states that aren't really projected to be that close (South Carolina, Maine & California). It appears that the huge gap that had exploded in June (Rasmussen showed a 28 point lead) has comeback to normal (Rasmussen's poll today shows the lead at 12). There is an interesting divergence in polls in the last few days. State polls have shown McCain gaining momentum in most states, while national tracking polls are doing the opposite. This likely will normalize next week. Most state polls released this week were taken very early in the week (even California's poll today was taken on Thursday). It is likely that polling from later this week and early next week will confirm what the national polls are doing.

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