There were 6 polls released today in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, Michigan, Colorado and Louisiana. Three states change color slightly. South Dakota moves from safe McCain to leaning McCain as his lead drops from 12 to 8 points. In Michigan, Sen. Obama's lead expands to 6% and is moved from barely Obama to leaning Obama. Colorado has a switch in the other direction however. Sen. Obama's lead drop to just over 5 points and is moved from leaning Obama to barely Obama. Overall, counting states the lead is 6 points or more (Leaning & Safe states) Barack Obama is currently ahead in the electoral vote 260-157. This means that Sen. Obama would need 10 electoral votes from the following states: Colorado (9 electoral votes) & Ohio (20),where he currently holds a 2-6 point lead; or Nevada (5), North Dakota (3), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13) or Florida (27) which are currently within 2 points in either direction. With today's polling Barack Obama's lead over Sen. McCain expands in the popular votes by .07% to 4.16% (93,000 votes to 5.75 million)
2 comments:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan
I'm curious on what your take is about the Maine & Nebraska laws. They would accomplish nearly the same thing and keep the structural integrity of the electoral college itself.
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