8/14: 4 new polls, 2 changes on the map, 1 change in the electoral count and a popular vote milestone. Sen. McCain has an excellent day today a new Rasmussen poll in Colorado moves that state to toss-up status, while a new Rasmussen poll in Minnesota moves it from leaning to barely Obama. The electoral count for Sen. Obama drops from 273 to 264 today and represents the first day where his total has been less than the number of electoral votes required to win the election. In addition, for the first time in 6 weeks, Sen. McCain's deficit falls to below 3% in my popular vote projection.
The new math makes the electon a near dead heat. The 5 toss-up states look like this:
North Dakota: +1.16% McCain
Virginia: Tie
Nevada: +.16% Obama
Colorado: +.64% Obama
Ohio: +.64% Obama
If Sen. McCain were to win all 5 of these states, he would win the election (he could even lose North Dakota, but if the others were to swing in his favor it is like North Dakota would as well). If he were to win them all except for Nevada we would have an electoral tie. Sen. McCain still has a mountain to climb, but it's no longer Mt. Everest, it's the Rocky Mountains of Colorado.
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