8/4: 9 new polls were released to in 7 states, (only 1 of which is competitive). Sen. McCain gains in the popular vote in 6 of these 7 (Oklahoma, Florida, Massachusetts, Arizona, Connecticut and Alabama), while Sen. Obama only gains in New York. Sen. McCain picks up 270,000 (0.20%) net votes today and cuts the lead to under 5 million votes for the first time in a week. As I mentioned yesterday, Sen. McCainappears to be making gains slowly but surely through July and into August. Since naitonal polls move much quicker and they are taken more often, it is likely that Sen. Obama's lead is smaller than I am currently projecting. In fact, in today's Rasmussen tracking poll is tied and including leaners Sen. McCain leads by 1 point for the first time since Sen. Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
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