Michigan

9/28: 8 new polls in Michigan have been released in the last 6 days. 6 of them show leads for Sen. Obama, 1 for Sen. McCain and 1 tie. His lead expands a little bit as a result and now leads by 5. Michigan remains barely Obama's.

9/22: 5 new polls have been released with a wide range of margins for Sen. Obama. He could be ahead by as little as 1 or as much as 9. In my projection, his overall lead is 4. Michigan is barely Obama's.

9/11: 2 new polls were released today in Michigan. Insider Advantage shows Sen. McCain with a 1 point lead, while Rasmussen shows Obama ahead by 5. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead shrink from just under 4 to just over 2. Michigan remains barely Obama's.

9/10: CNN/Time released a new poll in Michigan showing Sen. Obama ahead by 4. So far, it appears that Sen. McCain's bounce may not have helped him here. Sen. Obama's lead remains at just under 4 points and Michigan remains barely on his side.

9/9: A new Strategic Vision (R) poll confirms yesterday's PPP(D) poll. The last 3 polls now show Michigan tightening. I'm looking for Rasmussen to do a poll here in the next week or so and if their result shows a shift as well, Michigan will likely move to toss-up status. For now it remains barely on Obama's side but his overall lead here is cut to under 4 points.

9/8: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 1. This is a gain of 2 points for McCain since their last poll 6 weeks ago. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead is cut to under 6 in my projection and Michigan is moved from leaning to barely Obama.

8/25: The Detroit News released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. Little changes as a result, althogh Sen. McCain picks up about 8,000 votes in my projection. With the next poll, any lead for Sen. Obama of less than 6 will result in a shift of Michigan back to Barely Obama.

8/22: The Detroit Free Press released a poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 7. As a result, his lead expands to just over 6 points in my projection. Michigan shifts from barely to leaning Obama.

8/8: Rasmussen released a new poll in Michigan today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 7. This is 1 point less than the lead he had in their last poll in July. As a result, Sen. McCain picks up a net of 19,000 votes. Michigan remains barely Obama.

7/30: Public Policy Polling's new survey in Michigan confirms Quinnipiac and Epic/MRA's polls last week showing Sen. Obama with a very small lead. Unless something drastically changes here, it will likely remain barely Obama for quite some time.

7/24: Today's Quinnipiac poll in Michigan shows Sen. Obama ahead by 4. This is a small decline in Sen. Obama's lead since their last poll in June. As I suspected 3 days ago, Michigan is moved from leaning to barely Obama after this result.

7/21: Epic/MRA released a new poll in Michigan showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 2 points. With this poll the PPP & Survey USA polls from June are removed. A slight gain for Sen. McCain results and the lead has been cut to 6.10%. Another poll with this small a margin will likely result in a change from leaning to barely Obama.

7/15: Rasmussen's new poll put Senator Obama ahead by 8 points. There has been a clear swing in Michigan in the last several Rasmussen polls here. In May, Sen. McCain was ahead by 1. As a result of this poll, Michigan changes from barely Obama to leaning Obama.

6/26: Quinnipiac released a poll in Michigan (another of their 4 large ample, swing state polls), showing Obama leading by 6. It has become clear in the last several polls that their has been a switch in momentum in Michigan. As a result, Michigan moves from a toss-up to barely Obama. 6/24: PPP has published a new poll in Michigan showing Obama with a 9 point lead, just outside the margin of error. Keep in mind this poll is run by Democrats and is likely inflating Obama's totals. That said, there is an emerging trend in Michigan of Obama gaining traction. For now the state is still a toss-up although, the next poll will likely swing the state slightly in Obama's favor. 6/20: Michigan may be ground zero for final week campaigning. Michigan could be 2008's Florida (2000) or Ohio (2004). This battle promises to be highly competitive and may decide the presidency.