Electoral Math

9/8: 8 new polls today in 6 swing states show Sen McCain gaining in popular vote overall. 5 states change in color and 3 states change in the electoral count. First, in Colorado, Sen. Obama gains 9 electoral votes to get his total to 269. Don't let this number deceive you. Colorado's stay on Obama's column is likely not long. Nor is the 27 electoral votes Sen. McCain lost in Florida. His lead there slips slightly after a new Rasmussen poll shows a dead heat here. This shows a shift in Sen. Obama's direction, contrary to national polling of late. Finally, in Ohio, Sen. McCain gains 20 electoral votes as Rasmussen's poll there shows a 7 point lead for him there. While I'm looking for confirmation of this poll as well, it does not seem nearly as far-fetched as the Florida poll. It is important not to look at the map so much over the next couple of weeks. Because there has been a shift in the national polling (Sen. McCain did indeed have a bounce. How big remains to be seen.) it will likely take a couple of weeks as new polling data comes in for most states. The important numbers to look at right now, is the popular vote just for direction to understand where the election is headed and comparing new polls with older polls by the same pollster as modeling generally does not change much between polls. Rasmussen by far does the most polling (they generally poll any state that even resembles close about once a month). Compared to last month, today's Rasmussen polls show Sen. Obama picked up 5 points in Colorado and 3 in Florida. Sen. McCain had 3 point gains in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. The only unexpected number is in Florida when looked at in this manner is Florida. I'll keep a tally on this in the days to come to find a swing and how big it probably is nationwide.