North Carolina

9/26: 2 new polls have been released showing a tie and a small lead for Sen. Obama. North Carolina is moved to a toss-up as Sen. McCain's overall lead is cut to under 1 point.

9/22: 4 new polls were released showing small leads (and even a tie) for Sen. McCain. It appears now that the Survey USA and Daily KO's poll showing much larger leads are outliers. North Carolina is moved back to leaning McCain and may go back to barely McCain if further polling shows similar results.

9/11: 3 new polls, all of which were partisan (Daily KO's and Garin Hart Yang for the Democrats and Civitas for the Republicans) were released today. 1 of which shows Sen. McCain's lead here at 17, while the other 2 show North Carolina to be close. The result: either McCain's ahead by a blowout margin, or its within a few points. For now, I'm putting North Carolina safely on McCain's side strictly by the numbers, but there's an awful lot of noise here that's hard to interpret.

9/10: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll in North Carolina showing Sen. McCain ahead by only 4. This is in direct contrast (possibly intentionally) to Survey USA's poll from yesterday when McCain led by 20. It remains to be seen whether or not Survey USA's poll is an outlier. For now North Carolina remains leaning toward McCain.
9/9: Sen. McCain now leads by 20 according to Survey USA. Their latest poll shows a jump in Sen. McCain's lead of 16 points since their last poll 4 weeks ago. While I'm looking to confirm this poll, for now North Carolina is moved from from barely to leaning McCain.

9/3: What a shocker! Another new poll in North Carolina shows Sen. McCain with a 3 point lead. Little changes as a result, although Sen. Obama gains fractionally.

8/25: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 3. Not much changes here, as Sen. Obama gains only fractionally. North Carolina remains Barely McCain.

8/20: Insider Advantage released a poll in North Carolina today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 2. As a result, Sen. McCain's gain from yesterday disappears but his over all lead is still about 4 points and North Carolina remains barely on his side.

8/19: Civitas (R) released a poll today showing Sen. McCain expanding his lead to 6. His lead expands to nearly 5 and North Carolina remains barely in his column.

8/15: Sen. McCain has another 4 point lead in today's Rasmussen poll in North Carolina. As a result, he gains by fractions of a point and North Carolina remains barely McCain's.

8/12: Another polls in North Carolina, another small lead for McCain. For nearly 3 months, spanning 10 polls, Sen. McCain has held a lead between 2 & 5 points. Little changed here today. North Carolina remains barely McCain's.

8/1: Daily KO's/Research 2000 released a poll in North Carolina showing Sen. McCain with a 4 point lead. As I have mentioned in previous posts about North Carolina, it continues to be remarkably consistent. North Carolina remains barely McCain's.
7/29: Yet another poll is released in North Carolina today (Public Policy Polling-D) and again another small lead for Sen. McCain. In fact, ever polls in North Carolina in the last 2 months have shown Sen. McCain ahead by between 2 and 5 points. Sen. Obama makes a very small gain (about 9,000 net votes) here and North Carolina remains barely McCain.

7/21: Civitas (R) released a new poll in North Carolina today showing Sen. McCain with a 3 point lead. North Carolina has had some of the most consistent polling in the country. McCain's 4 point lead leaves the state barely in his column.

7/17: A new Rasmussen poll continues to shoe John McCain with a small lead. His overall lead expands slightly to about 4.5 points, but North Carolina remains barely in his column.

7/15: Survey USA released a new poll today in North Carolina (this is their first in several days and honestly I was wondering when the would). John McCain leads by 5 and is a slightly lower lead than their last poll in May. As a result of this poll Sen. Obama gains about 1 point and the lead is shrunk to 4.

7/1: This is one of the few states that has not shown a significant bump in polling since Sen. Obama became the presumptive nominee. North Carolina is still considered very close and is a likely target for the Democrats to win a state won in previous elections by the Republicans. 6/20: North Carolina is closer than in recent elections and may force McCain to visit a state he would rather not have to. In this way, it is similar to New Jersey for Obama.