Electoral Math

A new Rasmussen poll in Virginia shows Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 6 in Virginia.  As a result, Virginia moves from toss-up to barely Obama as he takes a lead of more than 4 points in my projection.  With Virginia moving toward Obama, the President currently holds leads of at least 2 points in states totaling 277 electoral votes. 

Including states that are likely to vote for Obama, but do not currently have any polling (Delaware, Maryland and District of Columbia), his total goes to 293.  With that, Mitt Romney would have to win all of the toss-up states (New Hampshire, Florida, Iowa) and win at least 2 of the 6 states (Maine, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada) that are currently barely Obama.  Even then, 1 of the 2 would have to be Pennsylvania or Ohio, if not, then Romney would need to win at least 3 of those states.

The map right now clearly looks difficult for the Republicans, although we are still a LONG way from the election and absolutely anything could happen between now and the election.