New polls in Michigan confirm that the gap between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney has closed in the last couple of days. In fact, in the NBC News/Marist poll released this morning, Romney actually leads Santorum by 2 points. That said, I still show Rick Santorum slightly ahead (about 2.6%), with a caveat. The Inside MI Politics/MRG and Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll are still be used in my calculation. By next week when the primary occurs they will have aged out. Discount those polls, I have Santorum ahead by about 0.7%. Michigan appears to be a toss-up right now.
In Arizona, 4 polls have been released since my last post with diverging results. Mitt Romney leads in all for but by margins varying from 3 to 16 points. For now I'm splitting the difference and saying Romney's ahead by nearly 10. Unless something changes tonight in the debate, it would appear the gap might be too large for Santorum to overcome.
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