Another week gone by and not a lot happening on the map. The biggest change was last week when Virginia tilted barely toward President Obama. There has also been an uptick in his popular vote lead. 2 weeks ago I had him ahead by about 3.5%, but that has since moved to slightly more than 5%. It doesn't sound like a lot, but using only statewide polls to calculate my popular vote projection makes strong moves pretty difficult, particularly during a time when most of the polls coming out are not for the presidential election, but for the Republican primary season. There were 2 color changes on the map this week, as Wisconsin and New Jersey were moved from leaning to safely Obama. Polls in both states had the Preseident ahead by about 15 points and pushed my calculation over the 10 point threshhold.
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