Thursday, April 19, 2012

Electoral Math

New polls today in 4 toss-up states (NH, OH, MO and FL) create 2 color changes on my map today.

In New Hampshire, Dartmouth released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 2. The previous poll by WMUR and UNH taken at the end of January showed Pres. Obama ahead by 10. As a result, New Hampshire moves from Safe Obama to Leaning Obama. That said, it's probably closer than that there as the previous poll is likely an outlier. Obama +7 (but an extremely iffy +7 at that).

In Ohio, Fox News released a poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 6. This falls largely in line with previous polls. That said, Fox News last poll in February had Mitt Romney ahead by 6 (which was likely an outlier at the time). My projection moves from Obama +7 to +9.

In Missouri, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 3. Rasmussen's previous poll last month head Romney's lead at 9. As a result, Romney's lead is cut from 6 down to just over 2. Missouri moves from leaning Romney to barely Romney.

In Florida, Fox News released a new poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 2. The last 6 polls taken here now show Pres. Obama ahead by leads ranging from 2 to 7 and ages out a Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon poll during the run up to the Florida Primary showing Mitt Romney ahead by 4. Overall, my projection moves from Obama +3 to Obama +5.

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