In Rasmussen's 3-day tracking poll release today, Mitt Romney leads Pres. Obama 49-47. This is the same result as yesterday. Today is the first day that all polling data was taken after Wednesday night's debate. This is in contrast to Thursday's release when Obama was up 2. My expectation today was that there would be an even further shift today.
In Gallup's 7-day tracker, Mitt Romney picked up 1% since the debate, now trailing Obama 49-46. This would mean that we should expect that by next Thursday's release (which will then be the first entirely post-debate poll), we should expect the race to be a point or 2 closer than this.
Yesterday, my expectation was that there was anywhere from a 6-10 point shift. Today it's only 3 or 4.
I'd like to talk about the math in the Rasmussen poll for a minute. Because there waas no change in today's 3-day poll vs. yesterday. It is safe to assume that within rounding error, yesterday's single day poll, was the same as Wednesday's single day poll. Since yesterday replaces Wednesday this is a safe assumption. That could mean 3 things. It could mean that Romney's post-debate peak has already passed. It could mean that there were polling anomalies either in the previous two days (not likely, with the confirming trend of state polls last week), or that yesterday was a bot of an outlier. Only time will tell if the gains Romney made in the last few days will stick. My gut is that they will. But instead of thinking that Romney could be ahead by a couple of points nationally, I'm now thinking it is much more of a dead heat.
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