Electoral Math 10/14/16

Electoral Math 10/14/16

Today's biggest news is the a new Times-Picayune poll showed Hillary Clinton ahead by 6 in Iowa.  The poll itself was taken from 10/7-10/10 which puts it mostly in the timeframe between the Access Hollywood release and the 2nd debate, although there is one day after the debate.  I think this might generate a few more polls there over the next several days because the general consensus was that Iowa was the one state where Donald Trump had been performing quite well.  Additionally, the Times-Picayune put out a poll in Ohio during the same time frame that shows Clinton ahead by 5.  That's enough to move the Buckeye State into the barley Clinton column.  I currently have her ahead by 2.25% there.

I also have Clinton with very small leads in Arizona (1.07%) and Iowa (0.37%), although they are far too close to call or even consider leaning in 1 direction or the other, it would put Clinton at 358 EV in my projection.  To put it in a historical context, Barack Obama received 365 EV in 2008 against John McCain, but only 332 in 2012 against Mitt Romney.