Sunday, July 6, 2008

The Week In Review

7/6: This week there were 23 new polls in 13 states added to the database. The net result for the week shows Barack Obama gaining 867,000 net votes and while there was no change in the electoral count both Georgia (Safe McCain to Leaning McCain) and Montana (Leaning McCain to Barely McCain) moved one notch in his favor.
There was very little new polling data this weekend because of the holiday, but I expect (based on the latest result in Montana, where Obama was ahead by 5 in a Rasmussen Poll) there will be a considerable amount of polling, particularly in the upper Northwest this week. Personally, I believe there was a large bounce toward Obama based on his visit to Butte on the 4th, whether that bounce continues remains to be seen.
There has also been the begininngs of an indication that Sen. Obama's bounce since he became the presumptive nominee is nearing an end and the tables may be turning. Polls later in the week (ignoring Montana) have started to at least flatten out. Whether this is a direct cause of the missteps he took in his speeches this week or McCain scored with his drilling proposal will lay itself out over the next few days.
As always, it has been a pleasure to bring all of you this information and your comments and criticisms are welcomed.

Matt

No comments: