8/21: 6 new polls were released today resulting in 4 electoral votes lost for Barack Obama in New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania changing from leaning to barely Obama. Sound like good news for McCain to you? Maybe not. Sen. Obama gained more than 200,000 votes in the popular vote today. So far this week there have been 24 polls. Of those, there have been 12 polls that showed gains for McCain and 12 for Obama. Essentially, its a draw. Looking more closely, because I use multiple polls in my calculations, there is a lag in changes to the map. (For more information about this see my post from July 13th: Polls - The Great Lagging Indicator) The changes on the map today are in part, because of older polls where Sen. Obama's overall lead was a few points larger than it is now. It is beginning to appear that the race has stabilized in the last couple of weeks and has been under reported as such. With an Obama bounce likely in the next couple of weeks of polling, it is becoming increasingly likely that this is as close as Sen. McCain will be until we get past the conventions in September.
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