New York

9/28: A new Survey USA poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 19. His lead remains about 17 points as a result and New York remains safely Obama's.

9/22: 2 new polls were released showing Sen. Obama with leads of 13 and 5 points. For now, Sen. Obama's lead right now is about 17 points, but it is likely the lead here is smaller than that as older polls that are used in the calculation show larger leads.

8/18: Siena College release a new poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 8. This is the first poll that shows his lead here in single digits since mid-April. I never thought I'd say this, but I'd like to see some more polling here to confirm this result. It may be an outlier, but Sen. McCain cuts the deficit to 20 points in my calculation. New York remains safely Obama's. It will take several more polls with a similar result to be anything different.
8/7: Quinnipiac released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 21 here. This is in line with most other recent polling. Little is changed here today and New York remains safely Obama's.
8/6: Rasmussen released a new poll in New York today (as if another one was needed here) showing Sen. Obama ahead by 20. This is in contrast to their last poll in July which showed him ahead by 31. As a result, Sen. McCain cuts the lead from 26 to 23 points here and he picks up 300,000 votes in New York today.

8/4: Siena College released another new poll today showing Sen/ Obama ahead by 18. The surprising number in this poll however is the undecideds. 25% of all voters poll were undecided. As I have mentioned in previous posts, New York is vastly overpolled. New York is not likely to be competitive and Sen. Obama's lead in New York is now over 26% in my latest projection. 7/16: Siena College released a new poll in New York today showing a narrowing of Sen. Obama's lead from their last poll in June. The lead in New York is still nearly 25 points in New York. I'm looking for a new poll from Rasmussen which showed a 31 point lead 2 weeks ago. While that poll may have been overstating Sen. Obama's lead, it is clear he is safely ahead.

7/2: New York remains the most over-polled state in the country. Today's poll from Rasmussen shows Barack Obama with a 31 point lead. This is a 12 point jump since the last Rasmussen poll here last month. Is there really a need for the 5 polls in June in a state that's not close and was never really expected to be close? Perhaps this will quiet the pollsters down in New York and put their efforts into states that are more competitive.
7/1: A new Survey USA poll has been released showing Sen. Obama with a 20 point lead over John McCain. This is consistent with the bump shown in the Siena polling difference between May and June. As a result, Obama picks up a net 130,000 votes and his overall lead jumps over 20 points in New York.

6/22: A new Siena poll has been posted and results in a shift of about 120,000 votes in Obama's favor.

6/21: For a state that is not expected to be close, there certainly is no shortage of polling data here. The last time New York voted for a Republican was in 1984. The Democratic streak is not likely to change.