9/17: 14 new polls were released today, 4 changes on the map and 1 in the electoral vote. First, in New Mexico a new Survey USA poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 8. As a result, his lead grows to about 2.6% in my projection and New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes are moved to barely Obama. There were 3 other changes on today's map. In Florida, a new CNN/Time poll shows a dead heat. This is in contrast to polling that showed Sen. McCain ahead by as much as 8 just last week. It's enough to move Florida from leaning to barely McCain. Both Wisconsin and Oregon were moved from leaning to barely Obama after polls show small leads for Sen. Obama. The new math looks like this: Right now, Sen. Obama can win any of the 3 remaining toss-up states. Even Nevada, which would only get him to 269 would likely be enough for him to win the election, as an electoral tie would likely result in a win for Sen. Obama.
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