9/19: 16 polls in 14 states today, 5 changes on the map and 3 in the electoral count. Ohio & Indiana are both moved from barely McCain to toss-up after new polls there cut his leads in my projection to just under 2 points. Pennsylvania, which went for the first time into my toss-up colo,m early this week is moved back as his lead expands just slightly. Over the net change in the electoral college is +53 for Sen. Obama today. Don't read too much into this just yet, as I'm not convinced we have a titanic shift in the final result. In fact, over the last several weeks my electoral count has been fairly steady at 273-265, Obama with only Virginia switching from a Sen. Obama lead to Sen. McCain. Currently, Sen. Obama leads only in New Hampshire of the 5 current toss-up states.
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