9/28: A new Quinnpiac poll was released showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. This is in line with mst other recent polling. Sen. Obama's lead remains at about 3 points, but is most based on the Rasmussen poll from last week. No polling has been donw here in the ast few days and I'm curious to see what effect the financial crisis and the debate had in Minnesota.
9/22: A lot has changed in Minnesota since the Republican Convention. 5 new polls have been released, 4 of them show the race a statistical dead heat while Rasmussen appears to be an outlier with an 8 point Obama lead. Minnesota has moved from Leaning Obama to Barely Obama to Toss-Up to Barely Obama again in the last several weeks.
9/3: A new CNN/Time poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Obama ahead by 12 among registered voters. As a result, his lead expands to 7 points in my projection and Minnesota is moved from Barely to Leaning Obama.
8/21: Minnesota Public Radio released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama regaining the substantial lead he held in July. Based on the fact that this was was running concurrently with 2 other polls with not nearly as wide a spread, it is likely that this poll is an outlier. Regardless, Sen. Obama's lead expands to nearly 6 here.
8/18: Survey USA released a new poll in Minnesota showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. Ironically, Sen. Obama gains just a little with this poll as today's poll removes their poll from June from my equation when he only led by 1. Minnesota remains barely Obama.
8/21: Minnesota Public Radio released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama regaining the substantial lead he held in July. Based on the fact that this was was running concurrently with 2 other polls with not nearly as wide a spread, it is likely that this poll is an outlier. Regardless, Sen. Obama's lead expands to nearly 6 here.
8/18: Survey USA released a new poll in Minnesota showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. Ironically, Sen. Obama gains just a little with this poll as today's poll removes their poll from June from my equation when he only led by 1. Minnesota remains barely Obama.
8/14: Rasmussen's new poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Obama ahead by only 4. This confirms the results of Quinnipiac's poll 3 weeks ago. Sen. Obama's lead shrinks from 6 to 3 and as a result, Minnesota is moved from leaning to barely Obama. This marks the 2nd consecutive poll that resulted in a shift in Sen. McCain's direction in Minnesota.
7/24: Today's Quinnipiac poll is in direct conflict with the Rasmussen poll from yesterday and with their own poll from last month. Sen. Obama's lead drops here from 12 to 6 and Minnesota is changed from safe to leaning Obama.
7/23: Today's Rasmussen poll in Minnesota show Sen. Obama comfortably ahead by 13. Based on the new polling his lead shrinks slightly to just under 12 points, but Minnesota remains safely on Obama's side.
7/14: Minnesota has enjoyed the weirdest polling of all 50 states. Today's Rasmussen confirms their findings last month as well as Quinnipiac and Star Tribune before. It appears that the Survey USA polls from May & June appear to be outliers at this point. Sen. Obama's lead in my projection jumps from 11 to 13 points.
6/26: A new Quinnipiac poll has been releaed confirming the large leads shown by Rasmussen and Star Tribune. As a result, Minnesota moves from a leaning Obama to safe Obama state. This will probably change right around the time of the Republican convention which is to be held in St. Paul.
6/20: Conflicting data appears to be the rule here. There is a lot of noise in recent polls and will work itself out over time. It's difficult to draw any conclusions at this point, but for now I'm calling it leaning Obama.
6/20: Conflicting data appears to be the rule here. There is a lot of noise in recent polls and will work itself out over time. It's difficult to draw any conclusions at this point, but for now I'm calling it leaning Obama.
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