Missouri

9/26: 2 new polls in Missouri show the race here tightening. I'd like to see a few more polls here to prove that Missouri is this close. For now, based solely on the strength of last week's Rasmussen poll, Missouri remains barely McCain's.

9/22: A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by only 4. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead is cut to just under 6 points and Missouri is moved back to barely McCain.

9/12: Rasmussen released a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 5. This is down from a 7 point lead in their last poll 5 weeks ago. As a result his lead shrinks slightly, but Missouri remains leaning toward McCain.

9/10: CNN/Time's new poll in Missouri shows Sen. McCain ahead by 5. Now that the Research 2000 poll from July has been removed from the calculation, Sen. McCain's lead has grown to about 7 points. As a result, Missouri is moved from barely to leaning McCain.
8/20: Sen. McCain continues to expand his lead in Missouri after a new Publicy Policy Polling (D)survey was released showing Sen. McCain ahead by 10. This represents the largest lead he has hel in a single poll since March. His lead has expanded to nearly 4 points and any poll that removes Reserach 2000's poll from july out of my calculation will likely change Missouri frm barely to leaning Missouri.

8/8: Rasmussen's new poll in Missouri show Sen. McCain ahead by 7. This is up 2 points from the lead he held in the same poll in July. As a result, his lead expands from 1.82 to 2.54% (about 22,000 votes) and Missouri is moved back to barely McCain from toss-up.

8/1: A new Survey USA poll in Missouri shows Sen. McCain ahead by 5. This is down 2 points from their previous poll in June. As a result Sen. McCain's lead shrinks from 2.64 to 1.82% and Missouri is moved from toss-up to barely McCain.

7/12: Research 2000/St. Louis Dispatch released a poll showing Barack Obama with a 5 point lead over John McCain. It appears at this point that it is an outlier. The irony of this is that this poll replaces the last Research 2000 poll in January, (which may also have been an outlier). As a result, there is almost no change.

7/9: Rasmussen's new poll shows a 6 point shift from their poll last month. This has move the race from a near dead heat to over a 2 point lead for Sen. McCain.

6/25: A new Survey USA poll shows McCain expanding his lead over the previous poll. As a result, Missouri has been changed from a toss-up to barely McCain. This is an interesting contrast to the overall trend of national polls and speaks to one of the things I mention in my methodology post.

6/20: Missouri is a battleground state and is likely to remain as such throughout. The most recent data is showing a shift from a big McCain win a couple of months ago to a statistical dead heat. It will be interesting to see where polls head from here. The winner in Missouri will likely be the next POTUS.