9/26: 12 new polls have been released since my last update in Ohio. 9 favor Sen. McCain, 2 favor Sen. Obama and 1 is a tie. Ohio has moved to barely McCain at least for now. Over the next few days, as some of the older polls in my projection are removed, it appears likely that Ohio will become a toss-up again.
9/12: The University of Cincinnati released a poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 4. Ohio remains too close to call, although it is likely to swing back toward McCain as new polls become available unless they show Sen. Obama ahead.
9/11: 3 new polls in Ohio were released today. 2 (Insider Advantage and Strategic Advantage) show Sen. McCain ahead by small margins while Quinnipiac's new poll shows Sen. Obama ahead. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead shrinks to 1 point overall and Ohio is moved back to a toss-up.
9/8: A new Rasmussen poll in Ohio shows Sen. McCain ahead by 7. The largest lead he has held here since March. While I need confirmation of this poll, his lead expands to just over 2 points here and is moved from toss-up to barely on McCain's side. Based on the math so far, Ohio is one of only a couple of must win's for Sen. McCain (Virginia being the other). Without Ohio, the election is probably lost for Sen. McCain. 9/3: A new CNN/Time poll in Ohio shows Sen. Obama ahead by 2. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead falls to under 1 point. Ohio remains a toss-up. I expect several new polls will be taken here over the next couple of weeks as pollsters try to determine if there was a convention bounxce one way or another. 8/26: Qunnipiac University released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 1. This is down a point from their last poll in July. As a result, Sen. McCain gains slightly and now has a 1.34% lead. There is a chance with a small McCain lead in the next poll that he could move Ohio arely on his side, but for now Ohio remains a toss-up. 8/25: The Columbus Dispatch released a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 1. As a result, he takes about a 1 point lead overall. Ohio remains too close to call. 8/20: Rasmussen's new poll in Ohio sahows Sen. McCain ahead by 4. This compares to a 6 point lead for McCain last month. As a result, Ohio, like Virginia is a dead footed tie in my projection. Ohio obviously remains too close to call. 8/18: Public Policy Polling released a new poll showing Ohio as a dead heat. This is compared to an 8 point Obama lead just last month. As a result of this poll, Ohio remains too close to call, but for the first time Sen. McCain takes the lead in my projection. 7/31: A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows Sen. Obama ahead by 2, as compared to 6 in their last poll in Mid-June. While Ohio, is still far too close to call, Sen. McCain gains just slightly here as a result. 7/22: Rasmussen's new poll in Ohio shows Sen. McCain with a 6 point lead. Rasmussen is the only pollster that has shown him in the lead in the last 2 months. Sen. Obama's lead has now been trimmed to just over 1 point. Sen. Obama loses 20 electoral votes off of his total as Ohio is changed from barely Obama to toss-up status. 7/21: Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll today in Ohio. It shows that Sen. McCain has gained 3 points since their last poll in June. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead shrinks to under 3 points and remains barely in his column. 6/26: Survey USA released a new poll in Ohio today. It confirms a tightening in the race here, first shown by the previous Rasmussen poll. For now, I am keeping Ohio as a barely Obama state, although it should be noted that John McCain spent today campaigning in Ohio and is likely to a within a couple of points either way throughout this campaign. 6/20: Recent polling data shows wide swings in Ohio and will take some time to weed out the noise. Ohio promises to be a highly contested race once again.
9/8: A new Rasmussen poll in Ohio shows Sen. McCain ahead by 7. The largest lead he has held here since March. While I need confirmation of this poll, his lead expands to just over 2 points here and is moved from toss-up to barely on McCain's side. Based on the math so far, Ohio is one of only a couple of must win's for Sen. McCain (Virginia being the other). Without Ohio, the election is probably lost for Sen. McCain. 9/3: A new CNN/Time poll in Ohio shows Sen. Obama ahead by 2. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead falls to under 1 point. Ohio remains a toss-up. I expect several new polls will be taken here over the next couple of weeks as pollsters try to determine if there was a convention bounxce one way or another. 8/26: Qunnipiac University released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 1. This is down a point from their last poll in July. As a result, Sen. McCain gains slightly and now has a 1.34% lead. There is a chance with a small McCain lead in the next poll that he could move Ohio arely on his side, but for now Ohio remains a toss-up. 8/25: The Columbus Dispatch released a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 1. As a result, he takes about a 1 point lead overall. Ohio remains too close to call. 8/20: Rasmussen's new poll in Ohio sahows Sen. McCain ahead by 4. This compares to a 6 point lead for McCain last month. As a result, Ohio, like Virginia is a dead footed tie in my projection. Ohio obviously remains too close to call. 8/18: Public Policy Polling released a new poll showing Ohio as a dead heat. This is compared to an 8 point Obama lead just last month. As a result of this poll, Ohio remains too close to call, but for the first time Sen. McCain takes the lead in my projection. 7/31: A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows Sen. Obama ahead by 2, as compared to 6 in their last poll in Mid-June. While Ohio, is still far too close to call, Sen. McCain gains just slightly here as a result. 7/22: Rasmussen's new poll in Ohio shows Sen. McCain with a 6 point lead. Rasmussen is the only pollster that has shown him in the lead in the last 2 months. Sen. Obama's lead has now been trimmed to just over 1 point. Sen. Obama loses 20 electoral votes off of his total as Ohio is changed from barely Obama to toss-up status. 7/21: Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll today in Ohio. It shows that Sen. McCain has gained 3 points since their last poll in June. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead shrinks to under 3 points and remains barely in his column. 6/26: Survey USA released a new poll in Ohio today. It confirms a tightening in the race here, first shown by the previous Rasmussen poll. For now, I am keeping Ohio as a barely Obama state, although it should be noted that John McCain spent today campaigning in Ohio and is likely to a within a couple of points either way throughout this campaign. 6/20: Recent polling data shows wide swings in Ohio and will take some time to weed out the noise. Ohio promises to be a highly contested race once again.
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