Montana

9/28: 2 new polls were released in Montana confirming Rasmussen's result here 2 weeks ago. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead expands to 12 and MOntana is moved from leaning to safely McCain.

9/9: Montana appears to be swinging hard toward Sen. McCain, after a new Rasmussen poll shows him ahead by 11. As a result, Montana is moved to leaning McCain, although the race here may be over.

7/31: Rasmussen's new poll in Montana shows Sen. McCain ahead by 1, as compared to a 5 point lead for Obama 4 weeks ago. Sen. McCain's lead in Montana jumps to nearly 6 points, but the May Mason-Dixon and February Survey USA poll are still included. I'm hoping for new polling from other services to try to get a better read. At this point it's hard to tell whether Rasmussen's polling are outlying a little or not. For now, Montana remains barely McCain.

7/3: Montana? Seriously? A new Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama with a 5 point lead overn John McCain in Montana. Barack Obama is spending a considerable amount of time in North Dakota (today) and Montana (tomorrow) because he believes he can compete there. There may be some underlying influence on this poll based on his planned visit during the hoiday weekend. More polling will be needed to confirm this. However, as a result of this poll Montana is changed from leaning McCain to barely McCain. 6/20: Montana is closer than in recent elections, although will still likely be won by the Republican. It is doubtful Obama will attempt to capture Montana.