Nevada

9/26: Project New West (D) released a new poll showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. Sen. McCain's lead is just over 1 point right now and will likely remain a toss-up for the next several weeks. I'd like to saee some more polling in a state as close is Nevada is. The same is true for New Hampshire.

9/22: A new Suffolk University poll in Nevada shows Sen. McCain ahead by 1. His lead right now sits at 1.8% in my projection and remains a toss-up. It is possible that Nevada could change to a barely McCain states if a new poll comes out with Sen. McCain hold a 2 point lead or larger.

9/14: Rasmussen released a new poll showing Sen McCain ahead by 3. Nevada remains a toss-up. Nevada is likely to remain a toss-up until the CNN/Time poll from 2 weeks ago is removed. My gut felling is that Sen. McCain does have a small lead here.

9/11: As I expected in my last post, Nevada is moved to toss-up as a new Insider Advantage poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by only 1. As a result, his lead shrinks to about 1.4%.
8/27: CNN/Time's new poll in Nevada shows Sen. Obama ahead by 5. This is the largest lead he's held here since February. I'd like to see some confirmation of this poll, as Mason-Dixon's poll of only 12 days ago (released 3 days ago, see below) showed McCain ahead by 7. For now, Nevada remains Barely McCain's, but it's likely that Nevada will move to toss-up if new polls confirm even a tightening of the race.

8/24: Mason-Dixon's new poll of Nevada shows Sen. McCain ahead by 7. This represents the largest lead he has held here during the campaign and is in direct contrast to Research 2000's poll on Thursday. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of these. Sen. McCain's lead moves to 3 and Nevada is changed from toss-up to barely McCain.

8/21: Research 2000 released a new poll in Nevada today showing Sen. Obama with a 1 point lead. As I mention on my post from 7/17 below, Obama's small lead has disintegrated and Sen. McCain's lead is just below 2. For now, Nevada remains a toss-up, but a poll showing Sen. McCain with a lead of 4 or more will likely move Nevada barely to his side.

8/13: Incredibly, only Rasmussen has polled Nevada voters over the last 3 months. This month's poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. Hopefully as we progress through the fall there will be more diverse polling here. For now, Nevada remains too close to call.

7/17: Today's Rasmussen poll in Nevada shows Sen. Obama with his first lead in a poll in Nevada in 5 months. I'm looking for another poll by another service to confirm this result as there has been a surprisingly small amount of polling in a state that is largely considered to be a toss-up. Nevada remains a toss-up in my projection. The next poll to be replaced in my projection is the Research 2000 poll from last November, followed by the Survey USA poll from February. Obama's small lead here will likely disappear as new polls are taken.

6/21: Nevada is going to be another very tight battleground state. Nevada might be worth the gamble for either candidate and could decide the election.