Friday, September 12, 2008

Pennsylvania







9/26: 12 new polls have been released showing a spread between a tie and a 9 point Obama lead. The truth appears to be somewhere in the middle. Sen. Obama leads by about 4.5 points and is barely on his side.


9/11: Quinnipiac's new poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 3. His lead has now been cut to about 3 points. Pennsylvania remains barely on his side, but his lead is begining to shrink.


9/10: Strategic Vision (R) released a new poll in Pennsylvania showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 2. As a result, his lead is now cut to under 5 points and Pennsylvania remains barely on his side.


9/8: A new Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Obama ahead by only 2. This shows yet another gain for Sen. McCain as his deficit was 5 in their poll just 3 weeks ago. Like Michigan, the lead in Pennsylvania is cut to 5 and Pennsylvania is moved from leaning to barely Obama.


8/27: CNN/Time's new poll shows Senl. Obama ahead by 5. Pennsylvania has been for Obama simliar to North Carolina for McCain. Polling has been very consistent showing 5-7 point leads for Obama here. No real changes today, as Sen. McCain gains about .04% of the vote.


8/26: Quinnipiac University released a new poll in Pennsylvania today. Sen Obama holds a 7 point lead, identical to their poll last month. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead moves from 5.7 to 6.4%. Pennsylvania is moved from Barely to Leaning Obama.


8/21: Sen. Obama leads by 5 in a new Rasmussen poll and matches the previous 2 polls. As a result, his lead is cut to just iunder 6 points and Pennsylvania is moved from leanign to barely Obama.


8/19: Susquehanna released a new poll in Pennsylvania today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 5. Sen. McCain cuts the lead from 7 to 6 here and Pennsylvania remains leaning Obama. Another similar poll result will likely result in a change to barely Obama.


8/13: Franklin & Marshall College released a new poll in Pennsylvania today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 5. This is in line with other polls of late. Sen. Obama's lead in pennsylvania shrinks from 8 to 7 points as a result.


7/31: Today's new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Obama ahead by 7. This is down 5 points from their poll in mid-June. As a result, Sen. McCain picks up about 1 point and the lead is about 7.5 points.


7/30: Strategic Vision (R) released a new poll today showing Barack Obama ahead by 9. This compared to a 10 point lead for McCain in their last poll here in April. That being said, there is an interesting side note to this poll. Usually in presidential polls, who you would vote for is the first question. In their poll, it was the last of 13 (related to politics). It is likely ther is some sway based on the placem ent of the question. You can find the survey here: http://strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_083008.htm Little changes with this poll and Pennsylvania remains leaning toward Obama.


7/24: Rasmussen's poll today shows Sen. Obama ahead by 5. There is little change since last month's poll. His lead expands by about by about 1/3 of a point.
6/23: A new Rasmussen poll has been released showing Obama ahead by 4 points. This slightly expands on Obama's lead in the previous Rasmussen poll.


6/20: Pennsylvania will likely be a battleground state again in 2008. Polling has shifted from favoring McCain to Obama in the last few months. It is likely that bounces in both directions will continue to Election Day. For now, it is leaning toward Obama.

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