Florida

9/26: Florida changes from barely McCain to toss-up. Polls have tightened over the last several weeks. Sen. McCain is still clearly ahead as only 1 poll in September shows Sen. Obama ahead.
9/22: There have been 8 new polls here since my last update. Little has changed here although Sen. McCain's lead here has been cut to under 4 since my last update and will likely fall further over the next few polls. Since Sen. McCain's largest leads in recent polling are about to be aged out, they will have to be replaced with similar leads in order to keep the margin where it is. At this point, it does not seem likely over the next week or so that Sen. Obama will be ablte to return Florida to the toss-up category.
9/11: 2 new polls were released today in Florida showing Sen. McCain with leads of 7 & 8 respectively. As a result, his lead in my projection jumps to about 5 points and Florida is moved from toss-up to barely McCain.

9/9: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 5. There's been a lot of polling noise here in recent polls. For now, Florida remains a toss-up but polling suggests that Sen. McCain has a small lead here.
9/2: Rasmussen's new poll in Florida shows a dead heat between Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama. In their last poll 3 weeks ago, Sen. McCain's lead was 3. As a result, his lead drops under 2 points in my projection and Florida is moved from barely McCain to toss-up.

8/27: 2 new polls today in Florida. Strategic Vision's (R) poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 7, while Mason-Dixon released a poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 1 in Florida. This is the first poll where he has held a lead here in a month. Somewhere in between is likely where Florida actually is right now. Florida remains barely on McCain's side.

8/26: 2 new polls were released in Florida todayshowing Sen. McCain with 3-4 point leads. As a result, he lead expands fractionally to 3%. Florida remains barely on McCain's side.

8/21: American Research Group released a new poll in Florida today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 1. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead shrink from 4.5 to 2.7%. Sen. Obama gains 165,000 votes in Florida today, but remains barely in McCain's column.

8/19: Rasmussen released a new poll today in Florida showing Sen. McCain ahead by 3. Their poll here last month had Sen. Obama ahead by 1. Sen. McCain's lead expands from 2.7% to 4.5%. Florida remains barely on his side.

8/12: Insider Advantage released a new poll in Florida today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 4. This poll replaces the Florida Chamber of Commerce poll from 2 weeks ago, where he was ahead by 5. As a result, Sen. Obama makes a small gain but Florida remains barely McCain for now. 8/6: Public Policy Polling's (D) new survey shows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead expands from 2 to 3 points and picks up another 101,000 votes here. As a result of this poll, Florida is moved back into the barely McCain column.

8/4: 2 new polls were released today by Survey USA and the Florida Chamber of Commerce. Survey USA's poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 6, while the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows him ahead by 5. With these new polls Sen. McCain regains the lead by 1.82%, but is still slightly to close to call.

7/31: A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Sen. Obama ahead by 1 confirming Rasmussen's result last week. Florida remains too close to call, but it should be noted that in my projection, Sen. Obama has taken a small lead here.

7/23: What the polls giveth, the polls taketh away. Today's Rasmussen poll in Florida, shows Barack Obama with a 1 point lead. This is a stark contrast to their polling in June, where John McCain was ahead by 7. While McCain still has a small lead, Florida goes back to being too close to call 24 hours after it went into McCain's column.

7/22: American Research Group's new poll in Florida gives Sen. McCain with a 2 point lead. This is in sharp contrast to their previous poll 5 weeks ago, when Sen. Obama was shown ahead by 5. As I mentioned in my previous post on Florida (see below), either the pro-McCain polls or the pro-Obama polls recently have been outliers. It appears now that McCain is beginning to emerge with an advantage and his lead has now expanded to over 4%. As a result, Sen. McCain picks up 27 electoral votes as Florida goes barely into his column.

7/2: A new poll has been released by Strategic Vision (R) showing Sen. McCain with an 8 point lead. It appears now, as in most battleground states, there will be enough information in Florida to choke a horse, and wider results than that horse can possibly stomach. Today's poll leaves Florida still too close to call, but has swung from a 1 point deficit for McCain to nearly a 2 point lead. The reality is likely somewhere close to that, but it's hard to tell. Take your pick. Either Strategic Vision & Rasmussen are outliers or PPP, ARG and Quinnipiac are. Your choice.

7/1: Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll in Florida showing Barack Obama with a 2 point lead. This is in direct conflict with the Rasmussen poll from yesterday. There is something to be said about the fact that the poll was sponsored by a Democratic organization and as such tends to err slightly on the side of Democrats (although this is not always the case). There is much that can be said to support the findings of this poll as well. Both Quinnipiac and the American Research Group agree with these findings and only Rasmussen is showing a comfortable lead for John McCain. For now (and likely for quite a while) Florida is too close to call.

6/30: A new Rasmussen poll has been released showing John McCain with a 7 point lead. This is little changed from the previous 2 polls by Rasmussen. I will be very curious to see the next round of polls in Florida, as the bounce reported by ARG and Quinnipiac is not materializing in Rasmussen polls. Florida is still far to close to call, although I suspect as nw polling data becomes available Florida will begin shifting in favor John McCain.

6/20: Florida, Florida, Florida. McCain has seen an early lead evaporate since Obama became the candidate. We'll see if that continues. For now Florida is too early to call, although its hard to imagine an electoral map that McCain wins without Florida in the red.