Virginia

9/26: 11 new polls have been released since my last update in Virginia. Sen. Obama has taken the lead in my projection as 3 of the last 4 polls have shown him in the lead. In fact, his lead is likely to expand as the oldest polls here show the largest leads for Sen. McCain. If both the National Journal and Chris Newport polls are theoretically removed from my calculation, Sen. Obama would be ahead by more than 2.

9/10: CNN/Time's new poll of Virginia shows Sen. McCain ahead by 4. As a result, his lead here is up to nearly 2 points. Not quite enough for me to change Virginia's toss-up status yet, but it's getting very close. Once the PPP poll from August is removed from the calculation it will likely switch.

9/8: 2 new polls were released today in Virginia, both showing Sen. McCain with a 2 point lead. There is evidence of a small bounce here for Sen. McCain as he picks up 3 points since the last Rasmussen poll and 1 since the last Survey USA poll. While Virginia remains too close to call, it is worth noting that Sen. McCain has taken a small lead here again.
8/24: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new survey in Virginia today sowing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. This matches their poll from last month. The tie is broken in Virginia with Sen. Obama taking a small lead. Virginia remains a toss-up.

8/13: 2 new polls were released in Virginia by Rasmussen and Insider Advantage. Rasmussen's shows Sen. Obama ahead by 1, while Insider Advantage's is a tie. As a result of these two polls, Virginia is a dead-footed tie.

8/11: Survey USA released a new poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 1 in Virginia. This is the first poll where he has held a lead since Barack Obama became the presumptive nominee. His lead expands from .32% to 1.48% with this new poll. As I indicated in my previous posts in Virginia (see below) once the VCU poll is removed from my projection, Sen. Obama will get about a 1.5% swing in his favor. In fact, if it were to be removed hypothetically, my projection would be a dead heat. For now, (and likely until November) Virginia remains too close to call. 7/23: Today's result in the Public Policy Polling (D) survey confirm the previous results. It appears now that the VCU poll from May is an outlier, but remains in the calculation for now. While regardless of whether this poll is included or not, Virginia is still too close to call, but without it, Sen. Obama would have a small lead. Sen. McCain remains ahead here, but only by .34%.

7/18: Today's Rasmussen poll in Virginia that shows a tie, ironically breaks the tie in my projection. While Virginia is still far too close to call, the point Obama lost since the last Rasmussen poll in June, gives John McCain the slimmest of margins. Don't be fooled. The next poll to be aged out will be the VCU poll (unless the next poll comes from Survey USA or Rasmussen). Once the VCU poll is removed, there will be a fairly significant (about 1.5 points) swing in favor of Sen. Obama.

6/29: A new Survey USA poll has been released in Virginia showing Barack Obama with a 2 point lead. This result is consistent with both of the other polls run this month, but the race in Virginia remains too close to call.

6/20: Virginia may be one of the most important battleground states in 2008. Both McCain and Obama are counting on Virginia in order to reach 270 electoral votes. Right now, Virginia is a statisical dead heat and will likely remain that way throughout the next 5 months.