9/26: 6 new polls have been release, 5 of which show Sen. Obama with a small lead (Rasmussen has Sen. McCain ahead by 2). New Hampshire remains a toss-up, but Sen. Obama has taken over the lead and will likely hold it for a while as the oldest polls favor Sen. McCain.
9/22: New Hampshire is moved back to toss-up after 2 new polls show small leads for Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain has taken a small lead in New Hampshire and may move the state barely on his side in more polling confirms this week's results.
9/10: CNN/Time's new poll in New Hampshire shows Sen. Obama ahead by 6. Like Michigan, it appears there may not have been a bounce toward Sen. McCain here. In fact, Sen. Obama's lead expands to 2 and a half points here in my projection and New Hampshire is moved from toss-up to barely Obama's.
8/21: A new American Research Group poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 1 confirming yesterday's result in Rasmussen's poll. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead shrinks below 2 and New Hampshire is moved from barely Obama to toss-up status.
8/20: Rasmussen's new poll shows the race in New Hampshire growing even tighter. Sen. Obama's lead is cut to 1 in this poll and just over 2 in my projection. For now New Hampshire remains barely Obama's, but any further tightening will result in moving New hampshire to toss-up status. 7/24: Rasmussen's new poll confirm ARG's results and show a significant tightening in the race since their last poll 5 weeks ago. Sen. Obama's lead falls to just over 4 points, compared to a 9 point lead just 3 days ago when the UNH poll was released.
7/22: Today's ARG poll in New Hampshire confirm the results of yesterday's UNH poll. It also represents a 10 point slide in Sen. Obama's lead here in the last 4 weeks. As a result, Sen,. McCain cuts into the lead and it is now under 6 points. For the second day in a row, New Hampshire changes color slightly and moves to barely Obama. 7/21: Ask and ye shall receive. Yesterday, I mentioned that no new data had been made available in New Hampshire. Today, a new UNH poll was released showing a 9 point swing toward Obama since their last poll 3 months ago. With this poll, both Dartmouth's poll and UNH's from April are removed from my projection and a huge swing results. New Hampshire is removed from toss-up status and changes to leaning Obama. These are the first electoral votes changed since June 26th when Sen. Obama gaind 17 electoral votes Michigan.
6/20: A traditional battleground state, New Hampshire promises to be one again. Incredibly, Rasmussen has called for a 20 point swing from McCain to Obama from April 30th to June 18th. For now, I'm calling both of these polls outliers and the state too close to call.
8/20: Rasmussen's new poll shows the race in New Hampshire growing even tighter. Sen. Obama's lead is cut to 1 in this poll and just over 2 in my projection. For now New Hampshire remains barely Obama's, but any further tightening will result in moving New hampshire to toss-up status. 7/24: Rasmussen's new poll confirm ARG's results and show a significant tightening in the race since their last poll 5 weeks ago. Sen. Obama's lead falls to just over 4 points, compared to a 9 point lead just 3 days ago when the UNH poll was released.
7/22: Today's ARG poll in New Hampshire confirm the results of yesterday's UNH poll. It also represents a 10 point slide in Sen. Obama's lead here in the last 4 weeks. As a result, Sen,. McCain cuts into the lead and it is now under 6 points. For the second day in a row, New Hampshire changes color slightly and moves to barely Obama. 7/21: Ask and ye shall receive. Yesterday, I mentioned that no new data had been made available in New Hampshire. Today, a new UNH poll was released showing a 9 point swing toward Obama since their last poll 3 months ago. With this poll, both Dartmouth's poll and UNH's from April are removed from my projection and a huge swing results. New Hampshire is removed from toss-up status and changes to leaning Obama. These are the first electoral votes changed since June 26th when Sen. Obama gaind 17 electoral votes Michigan.
6/20: A traditional battleground state, New Hampshire promises to be one again. Incredibly, Rasmussen has called for a 20 point swing from McCain to Obama from April 30th to June 18th. For now, I'm calling both of these polls outliers and the state too close to call.
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