10/27: Sen. Obama regains Florida today after 3 new polls there show him ahead by 4, 5 and a tie. His lead expands to just over 2 points. It has been right around there for the last couple of weeks as Florida has bounced between toss-up to barely Obama several times. The most significant poll however, might have been in California, where a new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 27. This is significant in that it's a state liokely to have between 13 and 14 million votes cast, and a swing of just 1 point changes my popular vote projection by about 135,000 votes. Based on what I see now in state polling, Sen. Obama's poopular vote lead has actually moved above the numbers being publishe din national polls to 7.61% (10.5 million votes). Even with all that said, I am still not confident that what the polls are showing are what's going to happen 8 days from now. Call it the Bradley effect, or whatever you like, I'm still not sold on an electoral landslide.
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