10/28: No changes on the map today, for the first time in what seems like weeks. Sen. Obama remains ahead by about 7.6% in my projection today (which is close to both the Real Clear Politics and the Pollster.com average at 6.7%). The RCP and Pollster averages change more quickly as national polls are released more frequently than state polls.
What to watch for on election night? Indiana has one of the early poll closing times (7PM eastern). Because the race is close there, the earlier the state is called, the better it is for the winning side. If Sen. McCain wins Indiana by 4 or 5 points, it is possible that the map will differ significantly from what is expected. At the same time, if Sen. Obama wins by 4 or 5 it could mean a national landslide.
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