Today, Barack Obama has at least a 2% advantage in my calculations in states that total 280 electoral votes, with Mitt Romney leading in states with 206 EV. Additionally, although I currently have 4 states (Iowa, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire) as a toss-up, the most recent polling in these states suggest that Pres. Obama may have a small lead. As more polls become available of course, I will update the map.
Unlike most other prognosticators, I also include a popular vote projection. In order to do these, I look at estimated population data from 2008, as well as actual turnout. To project forward, I look at census data from 2010 to project how many votes will occur in each state. Votes for other candidates are allocated at the same rate in each state as they were in the 2008 election. The popular vote is then allocated based on the percentages from each state and rolled up to a total.
In states where there is no polling data yet available, the projection is based on the 2008 result. The only exception to this is Indiana, where I am currently projecting Mitt Romney with a small lead, but Barack Obama won in 2008.
Based on my projections, Barack Obama currently leads by about 3.5% or 4.7 million votes. This is largely in line with national polling, although based on the limited availability of statewide polls may be slightly skewed based on polls that are considerably older that can be deemed statistically accurate.
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