Michigan, Nevada, Arizona Primaries & Caucuses

3 polls in 3 different states were released today in states with upcoming primaries and caucuses.

First, in Nevada, in a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll, Mitt Romney leads the field by 20 points at 45%, with Newt Gingrich in second at 25%, followed by Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Only 2 days away from the Nevada Caucus, it would appear based on this poll that Mitt Romney is safely ahead and should cruise to victory.  I'd like to see another couple of polls before the caucus, but I don't know that we'll see any more than this, as Nevada does not appear to be competitive. The question in my mind will be does Mitt Romney get a majority of the vote here.  Right now I've got him just short at 49.5%, but that's far too close to say one way or the other.

In Michigan, a new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 38%-23%, with Rick Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 14%.  This is the second poll taken here in the last 10 days and shows a clear shift toward Romney.  Last week, Epic-MRA showed Romney ahead by only 5.  Undoubtedly, this is a result of the momentum shift that occurred during the Florida campaign last week.  In my projection, Mitt Romney's lead is currently at 11 over Gingrich, with Ron Paul just slightly ahead of Rick Santorum for 3rd place.  The primary here is not going to be held until February 28th, so there is still plenty of time for some changes to occur here.  Most likely neither of the current polls will be used as part of my final projection.

In Arizona, a Rasmussen poll was released showing Mitt Romney doubling Newt Gingrich 48%-24%.  Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Like Michigan, Arizona's primary will not be held until February 28th, so we're still several weeks (and momentum shifts) away from the primary here.