Electoral Math

Now that the primary season is just about wrapped up, I thought I'd give a view of what the election looks like right now.  Based on where we are today, President Obama has a substantial lead in both the popular vote and the electoral vote.  First, there are still 9 states that do not have any polls in this election cycle.

For a moment (until there is polling data to validate it) I am going to assume that Barack Obama is going to win Delaware, Maryland and Washinton D.C., and that Mitt Romney will win Alabama, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska.

If this is true, then Obama has significant leads in states that represent 236 EV.  If it also holds true that Maine, Nevada and Ohio where current polling shows him ahead by 6-10 points, his total moves to 264.  This will mean that he would only have to win one of Pennsylvania, Virginia or Florida to win the election.

Conversely, Mitt Romney would have to win all the states where he currently has a lead, plus win PA, VA and FL to get him over 270 EV.  While the lead is currently significant, there is still 29 weeks before the election and anything can happen between now and then.

Right now, it appears President Obama has  clear lead on the map, but to coin a poker term, Mitt Romney certainly has an inside straight draw that would not require a giant switch in the electoral to win the election.