Electoral Math

With less than 4 months until the election, Barack Obama continues to hold a substantial electoral lead in the upcoming election.  That said, over the last couple of months, there has been some strength begin to develop on the Romney campaign that has begun to cut into the popular vote, which in my projection has fallen from a 5.3% lead for Obama, down to 4.3%.  Even still, over this time there has been little change in the overall dynamic of the race.  In fact, over this time Mitt Romney has had North Carolina (15 EV) move from barely in his camp into the toss-up category (although I still have him ahead by 1 in my projection). Conversely, Obama has only lost 6 EV in Iowa (although he still leads by 1 there as well).  There's also been a small shift in states with larger leads.  Below is the list of states that have changed color (or shade) since my last post in May.

State                   May                                 Today
Maine                Leans Obama                   Safe Obama
North Carolina  Barely Romney                Toss-Up
Georgia             Leans Romney                 Safe Romney
Michigan           Leans Obama                   Barely Obama
Iowa                  Barely Obama                  Toss-Up
Oregon              Barely Obama                  Leans Obama

Overall, 6 states haved changed color, 3 in each direction.

Despite the overall shift that has occurred in the election, the math is essentially the same as it was in 2008.  In fact, right now only Indiana and North Carolina would have a different result than the last election.  This leaves Mitt Romney with a limited number of paths that he can take to get to 270.  Essentially, he must carry the 3 tossup states (Iowa, North Carolina and Florida) and win 29 EV from the barely Obama states (CO, WI, MI, OH and VA).

Conisdering the 8 states that Romney must compete in there are 256 possible outcomes (2 to the 8th power).  Of these 256 combinations, Obama would win in 203 scenarios, Romney 49, and 4 electoral ties.  That doesn't necessarily imply that Obama has an 79% chance of winning (203/256) or that Romney has a 19% chance of winning (49/256), but it does mean that Romney has significant hurdles to overcome.  Strictly speaking Romney's chance would be lower is states where he is trailing because theoretically he has less than a 50% chance of winning those states.