The Tarheel State had two new polls released with diverging results. PPP released a poll that showed Obama ahead by 1, while Rasmussen released a poll where Romney was shown ahead by 8. Both polls were taken after the President's announcement supporting gay marriage and after North Carolina's vote against it. The new polls put Romney ahead by 4 there and moves NC from Toss-Up to the Barely Romney column.
In Oregon, SurveyUSA released a new poll that shows Obama ahead by only 4. This starkly contrasts their previous poll in March when he was shown ahead by 11. SurveyUSA has been the only pollster to release a poll in OR so far this election season, but if this margin is accurate, I would expect other pollsters to head there soon to see if in fact that's the case. For now, Oregon moves from Safe to Barely Obama.
In Colorado, there was a poll taken several weeks ago (4/23-4/27) by Purple Strategies that showed a dead heat at 47. PPP's previous polling from April showed the president ahead by 13. With this new poll added, the margin in my projection drops to about 4.5% and Colorado was moved from Safe to Barely Obama as well.
Several new polls in Wisconsin show the race tightening there as well. Marquette, PPP and Rasmussen all released polls this week showing anywhere from a 4 point lead for Obama to a tie and represents about a 10 point shift from polls taken in March and April. In my projection, the lead is still 5, but even that is tenuous as any new polling will likely age out some older polls that showed with a more substantial lead. For now, Wisconsin moves from Safe to Barely Obama, but it may be a toss-up before long.
Glengariff Group released a new poll in Michigan showing Obama ahead by 5. That represents the third consecutive poll where the President's lead has been shown under 10. With it, his overall lead in my projection drops from 11 to 8 and moves the Wolverine State from Safe to Leaning Obama.
Finally, in New Hampshire, PPP released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 12. This is largely in line with WMUR/UNH's poll from April. His overall lead moves from 5 to 8 in my projection and New Hampshire is moved from Barely to Leaning Obama.
Overall, a great week for Romney in polling as several close states are beginning to show a similar change to what is happening in national poll numbers where the race is much closer than my overall projection at this point.
I have last week's map pictured below for reference to show the shift versus the current map. The reason, is that in contrasting these maps at this point is very important, because at this point in the election season, there is very little data to support projections. In fact, 8 states and the Washington D.C. do not have any polling data yet.
As a result, state polls (which are running at about a 10 per week clip right now) are going to move my projection very slowly as I do not consider any national polling in my calculations. As the election draws nearer and more states get polled more often, this becomes less of an issue, but for now, and likely the next several months, my map (in fact all electoral maps, regardless of the source) will lag significantly behind. The important thing to look at in an individual week, is the overall direction of state polling data.
I discussed this phenomenon during the summer of 2008 as well here. http://electoralmath.blogspot.com/2008/07/week-in-review-polls-great-lagging.html
Overall, the map looks a lot different than it did a week ago. The clean path to victory for Mitt Romney will be to sweep Florida, Virginia, Ohio. If he were able to do that and win all the states he currently has leads in, he would be at 266 EV. From there, any other currently Barely Obama state would give him the election. It's still a pretty difficult, (at least for now), but the map looks a lot better for Romney right now.
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