5 new polls today, with 2 color changes on the map.
First, in New Hampshire, ARG released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 5. This is in contrast to a poll they released just 10 days ago, that showed the President ahead by only 1. With this new poll, his lead moves to just over 3 points in my projection, and New Hampshire moves from toss-up to Barely Obama.
In Michigan, Gravis Marketing released a poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead by only 4. With this new poll, his lead is cut from 11.8% to 9.8%; just enough to move Michigan from safe to leaning Obama.
In Virginia, ARG released a poll that shows Obama ahead by 2. It doesn’t change the map at all, but it does represent the 10th straight poll in Virginia, where je jas held a lead. The reason I bring this up is that several projections still consider Virginia to be a toss-up.
While the race there is close, (I have Obama ahead by 3.8%), for prognosticators to think that the state is too close to call it leaning in Obama’s favor, is at the very least overly cautious.
Overall, it was a mixed day for Romney. 4 EV were awarded to Obama in my projection tonight, but Romney picked up 36,000 net votes in my popular vote projection, cutting the lead from 4.84% to 4.82%, mostly on the back of the Michigan poll.
I expect polling will be light this weekend, but I’d like to spend some time talking about the misperception of margin of error.
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