9 new polls are added to the map today, in 9 different states result in 15 EV for Pres. Obama in my projection. Additionally, 2 other states changed in color today due to aging of some older polls.
In North Carolina, NBC/WSJ/Marist released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 2. This confirmation (which I had asked for yesterday) is in line with the last 3 polls taken there and moves Obama ahead by 2.8% in my projection. As a result, North Carolina moves from toss-up to barely Obama.
Michigan moved from leaning to safely Obama as a Baydoun-Foster poll taken 2 weeks ago that showed Obama ahead by only 2, and an MRG poll showing Obama ahead by 6 are aged out of my projection. The last 3 polls there show leads from 8-14 points.
Ohio is moved from barely to leaning Obama after a Rasmussen poll was aged out of my projection as well. There are 6 polls still included in my result, with an average result of Obama +6. In my projection, his lead is slightly larger than that, at 6.2%. I expect that this is only a temporary change, as any new poll where the margin is less than 6 will move the state back to barely on his side.
The remainder of the polls (Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Arizona, Connecticut, Indiana & Washington) were in line with previous polling and did not result in any color changes.
Overall, it was another strong day for Obama as he picked a net 343,000 votes today and expanded his lead from 4.59% to 4.84%.
I got 2 of my 3 wishes yesterday getting new polls in NC & NH. Still waiting for MO (any pollsters out there, hint! hint!)
With today’s map, it’s beginning to appear that the election is going to boil down to 7 states, (NV, CO, IA, VA, NC, FL & NH). Presuming that Obama wins all of the states where he currently leads by more than 6%, he would only have to 1 of the 6 that are not New Hampshire to win the election. Winning only New Hampshire would result in the dreaded electoral tie, but is an extremely unlikely outcome.
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