The last week has shown some fairly significant movement on my map. Only 3 states are currently considered toss-ups on my map, with Pres. Obama ahead 322 EV to Gov. Romney’s 191 EV.
Further, Pres. Obama’s lead in the popular vote is now about 4.4% (nearly 6 million votes) at 51.5% to 47.1% for Romney.
As it stands right now, Romney would have to win all of the toss-up states (IA, NH, NC) plus pick of 53 of the 75 EV in states where Obama currently has leads between 2 and 6 points (FL, OH, VA, CO, NV) in order to get to 270 EV.
Conversely, Obama would only need to capture Florida, or he could lose Florida, win Ohio and any other of the states he has small leads in (NV, CO, VA) in order to win.
The map is certainly looking more daunting for Mitt Romney than it did a few weeks ago. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Michigan are starting to appear to be out of play 46 days from the election.
A link to my current map is below.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html
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