Electoral Math

 

Today, I thought I’d show state by state what the electoral math actually looks like for the two candidates based on my projections. The list above is sorted by Mitt Romney’s margin of victory (or loss) by state, followed by the number EV for each state and the accumulated total EV for each state presuming states are won from top to bottom (or bottom to top in the case of Pres. Obama).
Presuming that Mitt Romney wins all of the states he currently has substantial leads in he will have 191 EV. He would then have to win 80 of the 100 EV available is states where Obama leads by 5% or less in my projections. Florida MUST be one of those states if we assume that all of the states where Obama leads by more than 5% are won by the president (247 EV).
The most likely scenario for Romey today would be for him to win NC, IA, NH, CO, FL, NV and VA. Ohio is also in play, although just barely with Obama having a 5 point lead. If Romney can capture Florida, he would only need to win Ohio and Virginia in order to get to 270. There are several other paths if he were to lose either of those states, but he can’t lose both. As Nate Silver put it if Obama wins Ohio and Virginia, the election is OHVA.