10 new polls released today with 3 color changes on the map. First, in North Carolina, ARG released a new poll that shows Romney ahead by 4. With this new poll, North Carolina moves back to a tie in my projection, and is moved from barely Obama to toss-up.
In Michigan, WeAskAmerica released a poll showing Obama ahead by 52-40. Romney is up 2 points from their previous poll 10 days, and moves my projection from Obama by 10.5% to only 9.7%. Michigan is moved from safe to leaning Obama.
In New Hampshire, WMUR/UNH that appears to be an outlier. Obama is shown in the lead 54-39; a swing of 8 points from his previous high water mark just 5 days ago. Further, in a Rasmussen poll from 2 weeks ago, Romney was shown ahead by 3. In my projection, Obama moves ahead by 6.3% and moves from barely to leaning Obama. Look for New Hampshire to move back pretty quickly as new polling becomes available. I don’t expect this kind of lead can be confirmed.
Mitt Romney had a good polling day today. 3 new national polls showed Obama ahead by 2-3 points, while the daily tracking polls from Gallup (rolling 7 days) & Rasmussen (rolling 3 days) show Obama ahead by 4 & 3, respectively. Romney picks up about 130,000 net votes (.10%) today. Additionally, Obama’s loss of 15 EV in North Carolina might be a signal that he may have peaked last week and the race may begin a tightening trend.
Effects of the debate will not likely be seen in new polling until at the very earliest Friday or Saturday, and will likely take until early next week before any shifts from it are known.
I would expect that tomorrow & Wednesday will be relatively heavy poll release days, as pollsters & news organizations try to get a sense of the state of the race before the debate. I would also expect the late in the week will be relatively light until after new polls after the debate can begin on Thursday. It’s possible that this weekend and early into next will be very busy.
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