A bunch of new polls so far this week, but essentially nothing changed. I’m looking forward to polls that could begin coming out as soon as tomorrow that show the after effects of last night’s debate.
It was clear to anyone who was paying attention that Mitt Romney had an outstanding night. He was the aggressor, he pushed around Jim Lehrer, and he was clearly in command. The next few days are going to be very interesting polling days.
There are a couple of key polls to look at. First, keep your eye out for the Gallup & Rasmussen daily tracking polls. Rasmussen’s tracker which looks at the last 3 days, will likely begin to move beginning with tomorrow’s release. By Saturday, it will be fully post-debate. This morning’s release currently shows Obama ahead by 2.
The Gallup tracker is a rolling 7 day tracker and will be slower to move, but presuming that there is some sort of shift after the debate, within a day or two a trend should develop that begins to move the numbers. It will take until next Thursday’s release before all data is after the debate. This morning’s Gallup release showed Obama ahead by 4.
Finally, I would expect that by no later than Monday or Tuesday there will be a substantial number of polls in what are being considered the swing states (NV, CO, IA, VA, FL, NH, OH, MI, WI) that should show any shift immediately.
That said, because my projections look at multiple polls over a relatively long time frame, my model will likely be a little slow to react to any diametric shifts that occur.
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