No Leaners Projection: Obama 299, Romney 239
Ohio shifts back (albeit just barely) into Pres. Obama’s column after 2 new polls show leads between 1 and 3 points. This in addition to the aging out of an older poll that had Romney ahead by 1 moves my projection from O+1.8 to O+2.3%.
The other shift tonight comes in Virginia. While still a toss-up, the lead slightly shifts in my projection from Romney to Obama. Democrats should not get too excited thoug,h as the last 3 polls to come out in Virginia have all had Romney in the lead, while older polling that will age out of my projection in the next several days had fairly significant leads for Obama. Once these are removed (beginning on Saturday) VA will likely shift back, unless new polling puts Obama ahead by a significant margin.
Overall, it was a pretty good day for Obama in state polls, as there is some evidence of a small bump in his direction in statewide polling. However, most of this evidence comes from polls taken by Marist College which has tended to lean slightly in his direction throughout this season. National polling has been largely opposed this, where the current 7 day Gallup tracking poll shows Mitt Romney ahead by 7 today. This appears to be a bit of an outlier as well. Rasmussen’s 3-day tracker has Romney ahead by only 2.
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