Projection: Obama 259, Romney 206
No-Toss Ups: Obama 286, Romney 252
6 EV are added back to Pres. Obama’s column after Nevada moves from toss-up too barely Obama after 2 new polls (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA) show the President ahead by 3.
One other color change tonight after a new Rasmussen poll in Montana shows Mitt Romney ahead by 8. This is in sharp contrast to their previous polls 2 months ago, when Romney was shown ahead by 17. As a result, Romney’s lead drop from 12 to 9 points and Montana is moved from safe to leaning Romney.
No other color changes tonight, although Romney continues to gain in my popular vote projection. Tonight, Romney picks up 0.27%, about 366,000 net votes and now trails by only 2.86%. That said, my popular vote projection is lagging considerably in states that are not likely to be close, because very little new polling is coming out of uncompetitive states. I feel much more comfortable about the projections in swing states where most of my projections are based solely on polls taken in the last 10 days or so.
Over the last several days it has become clear in swing states that some of the post-debate bump Romney had received was beginning to recede. Beginning with tomorrow’s polls we should see some results that are affected by post-presidential debate polling.
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