Electoral Math 10/5/12

Let the shift begin. 7 new polls in 4 states released today, causing Pres. Obama to lose 42 EV in my projection, with a 3rd state changing color toward the Mitt Romney.
In Florida, Rasmussen & WeAskAmerica released polls taken after the presidential debate showing Mitt Romney ahead by 2 & 3, respectively. This after a streak of 9 consecutive polls that showed Pres. Obama ahead. In my projection, Obama stays just barely ahead (49.9% - 49.4%), but it will only take one more poll with these types of results for Romney to shift into the lead. FLorida moves into the toss-up category.
In Virginia, Rasmussen & WeAskAmerica released polls that showed leads for Mitt Romney between 1 & 3 points. This after an even longer streak (12 polls) that favored Obama. Obama’s lead in my projection has shrunk down under 2 percent, and like Florida, would likely shift slightly into Romney’s favor if a couple more polls show similar results.
In Ohio, Rasmussen a new polls that showed Obama ahead by 1, while WeAskAmerica has Romney up 1. Here 14 consecutive polls showed Pres. Obama ahead. In my projection, Obama’s lead drops from 7 to 4%, and as a result, Ohio shifts from leaning to barely Obama. Similar to both FL & VA, more polling here could shift Ohio again to toss-up if these polls can be confirmed.
Finally, in Nevada, Gravis Marketing released a new poll that showed Obama ahead by only 1. Nevada has largely been up and down, or at the very least, been schizophrenic in its polling. 8 different polls have been released here in the last 3 weeks showing everything from a tie to an 11 point Obama lead. My projection currently shows Obama ahead by 5%.
As I expected yesterday, state polling appears to be swinging pretty quickly. That said, both Rasmussen & WeAskAmerica have tended to lean slightly toward Romney throughout the cycle. That’s not at all to say that their polling is suspect, nor do I think today’s polls will be refuted by future releases by other pollsters.
I expect that the race is considerably closer than my projection shows right now. There are two primary reasons: First, only statewide polls are considered, so only 4 states in my projection show any influence from the debate. Second, multiple polls (at least 3, depending on recentness) are considered when determining the projection in each state.
Mitt Romney picks up an astonishing 545,000 net votes (0.41%) and now trails by 4.34%. I expect as more polls become available, the race will get much closer.