9/19: A new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by only 17. While Alaska is still very safely on his side, there has been significant softening of his lead here in the last couple of weeks.
9/10: Rasmussen's new poll in Alaska shows Sen. McCain ahead by 31. His lead in my projection has now jumped to 22. Alaska is safely McCain's and no longer competitive.
9/5: Ivan Moore's new poll in Alaska confirms the lead American Viewpoint found yesterday. The "Palin Bounce" is irrefutable and likely irreversible. Sen. McCain's lead expands to 13 points in my projection and Alaska is moved to Safely McCain.
9/4: American Viewpoint (R) released a poll in Alaska showing Sen. McCain ahead by an astonishing 24 points. Further polling will be needed to confirm this result, although it is not entirely surprising that a significant swing has taken place here after the vice presidential nomination of Gov. Palin. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead expands to 8 points here and Alaska is moved from Barely to Leaning McCain. 8/12: Hays Research (D) released a poll in Alaska today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 5. This is the first poll where he has held a lead. 2 things to note: First, Hays Research is a democratic leaning organization. Second, it is a poll only of adults, not likely or even registered voters. While likely voter models may be fundamentally flawed (particularly in this election), registered voter polls tend to lean left and adult polls tend to lean further left. With this in mind, only likely voter polls are given full weight in my projection (see my June 21st post on methodology for further information). As a result of this poll, Alaska changes from a leaning to a barely McCain state.
8/1: Rasmussen released a new poll today in Alaska (by their own admission because of Sen. Stevens indictment), that shows McCain still up 5 from their poll 2 weeks ago. There is very little change here. Alaska remains leaning McCain.
7/21: In Rasmussen's new poll in Alaska, Barack Obama loses 1 point of support vs. their poll last month. As a result, John McCain picks up about 1/2% and Alaska remains leaning McCain. 7/18: A new Daily Ko's/Research 2000 (D) poll has been released in Alaska. John McCain's 10 point lead in this poll represents his largest of the campaign. I've added a new feature today as well. The red outlines represent the polls used in the projection calculation. This is becoming increasingly important as more polling becomes available. Today's poll removed the Daily Ko's poll from May. Sen. McCain's lead expands by about 1% based on this poll.
6/19: Alaska appears to be closer than in recent years. It will be interesting to see if it remains close throughout the fall.
9/4: American Viewpoint (R) released a poll in Alaska showing Sen. McCain ahead by an astonishing 24 points. Further polling will be needed to confirm this result, although it is not entirely surprising that a significant swing has taken place here after the vice presidential nomination of Gov. Palin. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead expands to 8 points here and Alaska is moved from Barely to Leaning McCain. 8/12: Hays Research (D) released a poll in Alaska today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 5. This is the first poll where he has held a lead. 2 things to note: First, Hays Research is a democratic leaning organization. Second, it is a poll only of adults, not likely or even registered voters. While likely voter models may be fundamentally flawed (particularly in this election), registered voter polls tend to lean left and adult polls tend to lean further left. With this in mind, only likely voter polls are given full weight in my projection (see my June 21st post on methodology for further information). As a result of this poll, Alaska changes from a leaning to a barely McCain state.
8/1: Rasmussen released a new poll today in Alaska (by their own admission because of Sen. Stevens indictment), that shows McCain still up 5 from their poll 2 weeks ago. There is very little change here. Alaska remains leaning McCain.
7/21: In Rasmussen's new poll in Alaska, Barack Obama loses 1 point of support vs. their poll last month. As a result, John McCain picks up about 1/2% and Alaska remains leaning McCain. 7/18: A new Daily Ko's/Research 2000 (D) poll has been released in Alaska. John McCain's 10 point lead in this poll represents his largest of the campaign. I've added a new feature today as well. The red outlines represent the polls used in the projection calculation. This is becoming increasingly important as more polling becomes available. Today's poll removed the Daily Ko's poll from May. Sen. McCain's lead expands by about 1% based on this poll.
6/19: Alaska appears to be closer than in recent years. It will be interesting to see if it remains close throughout the fall.
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