North Dakota

9/22: ARG released a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 9. His lead expands to 8 in my projection and North Dakota is moved again to leaning McCain. At this point it seems likely the North Dakota will become a safe state in the near future,

9/10: A new Rasmussen poll in North Dakota shows Sen. McCain ahead by 14. While confirmation of these results are needed, for now North Dakota moves from toss-up to barely McCain. It seems likely that confirmation will come and North Dakota will be out of play.

9/4: The United Transportation Union (D) released a new poll in North Dakota showing Sen. Obama ahead by 3. This is the first lead he's held here since February. North Dakota remains too close to call, but I'm hoping for more polling here to determine whether the Democratic pollsters of late are skewing the result or not.
7/24: A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 (D) poll in North Dakota today shows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. North Dakota is still too close to call, but whith this poll Sen. McCain's lead expands to over 1 point.
7/10: Rasmussen's poll confirms the improbable. Barack Obama has a chance to win both Montana and North Dakota. Today's poll shows a dead heat and while statistically Sen. McCain is ahead by a couple thousand votes based on my calculation, North Dakota is clearly too close to call.
6/20: The lack of recent polling data makes this hard to call. If history is any judge, McCain should be considerably ahead. Based on what is available North Dakota is too close to call.