Friday, September 26, 2008

Electoral Math


21 polls today in 12 states and 2 changes on the map. First, in Maine, a new Survey USA poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by only 5. Maine ismoved from safely to leaning Obama. This raises the specter of potentially shifting Maine's 1st district to McCain. Also, in North Carolina, a new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 2. As a result, North Carolina moves to a toss-up and McCain's lead there is cut to under 1%. A couple of new trends to note. First, Ohio looks like it will be toss-up again very soon. Sen. McCain's lead has been now cut to 2.03% here. Also in New Hampshire 4 new polls show Sen. Obama with small leads and shifts the overall lead to Sen. Obama, although New Hampshire is still a toss-up. With toss-ups removed, Sen. Obama moves back to a 273-265 electoral lead. It is entirely possible that Sen. McCain's electoral total drops to 174, if Ohio (2.03% McCain lead) and Florida (2.53% lead) both get put into toss-up status.

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