Electoral Math 9/24/12

A host of new polls released today, with 1 change in EV as Iowa moves from toss-up to barely Obama after ARG released a new poll today showing Obama ahead by 7. This is in line with the NBC/Wall St. Journal/Marist poll from last week that showed him ahead by 8, but in stark contrast to Rasmussen's poll from last week that had Romney ahead by 7.

The other color change was in Pennsylvania where the Tribune Review/Susquehanna released a new poll showing the President ahead by only 2. This represents the closest Romney has been in a single poll since February, and a considerable outlier to 4 polls released in the last 2 weeks where Obama had leads from 6-12 points. As a result, Obama's lead in PA drops to about 8.7% and moves from Safe to Leans Obama.

The result: Obama picks up a net 75,000 votes today, with the gap now widening to 4.46% (up .05% from my last post on Saturday).